Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers Prediction 3/5/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Rangers Prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, March 5th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

New York Rangers Preview

The Rangers have 54 points this season with a 23-29-8 record, and are 29-31 ATS and 26-33 in over/under. They have a 7-15-6 home record and a 16-14-2 road record and are sitting 8th in the Metropolitan Division. They are coming off a 5-4 home overtime loss to the Blue Jackets, and their previous three games were a 3-2 home shootout win over the Penguins, a 3-2 home overtime loss to the Flyers, and a 2-0 home loss to the Hurricanes.

Offensively, the Rangers are averaging 2.62 goals per game and are scoring 22.4% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.17 goals per game and are killing 79.2% of their opponent’s power plays.

Artemi Panarin leads the Rangers with 57 points and 38 assists, while Mika Zibanejad leads the team in goals with 24. Igor Shesterkin is the starting goalie for the Rangers, and he has a 18-12-6 record, with 2.52 GAA and .911 SV%. Jonathan Quick is the backup goalie and he has a 4-14-2 record, with 3.10 GAA and .890 SV%.

Toronto Maple Leafs Preview

The Maple Leafs have 65 points this season with a 27-24-11 record, and are 25-37 ATS and 33-24 in over/under. They have a 16-10-7 home record and a 11-14-4 road record and are sitting 7th in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 4-3 road shootout loss to the Devils, and their previous three games were a 3-2 home shootout loss to the Flyers, a 5-2 home loss to the Senators, and a 5-1 road loss to the Panthers.

Offensively, the Maple Leafs are averaging 3.18 goals per game and are scoring 19.9% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.42 goals per game and are killing 83.4% of their opponent’s power plays.

William Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with 57 points and 21 goals, adding a team-high 36 assists. Joseph Woll is the starting goalie for the Maple Leafs, and he has a 13-9-4 record, with 3.05 GAA and .907 SV%. Anthony Stolarz is the backup goalie and he has a 7-8-3 record, with 3.37 GAA and .891 SV%.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Rangers Betting Trends: March 5, 2026

Why the New York Rangers will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in six of their last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Rangers have covered the puck line in five of their last six games against the Maple Leafs.
• The favorites have won the first period in each of the Rangers’ last five games.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Rangers have lost each of their last nine home games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last six games as underdogs against the Rangers.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the last 15 games between the Maple Leafs and Rangers.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 10 games as favorites.
• The Rangers have lost the third period in each of their last seven games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Rangers’ last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Maple Leafs’ last six games after coming off overtime have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Rangers’ last 10 games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games as road underdogs.

New York Rangers Player Prop Facts

• J.T. Miller has recorded at least one assist in five of his last six home appearances against the Maple Leafs.
• Urho Vaakanainen has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances – [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• William Nylander has scored a goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last three games.
• Auston Matthews has recorded an assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six road games.
• Brandon Carlo has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances – [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Rangers rank 27th in the league for goals per game this season (2.62).
• The New York Rangers have recorded the equal-most wins when trailing after Period 2 this season (6).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (83.44%).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 28th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.42).

Maple Leafs vs Rangers Prediction

The Leafs won their previous meeting against the Rangers this season by 2-1 in overtime at home and are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Maple Leafs vs Rangers Prediction, the Rangers are coming as -115 home favorites. The Leafs have been the better team this season and the Rangers have been the second-worse home team in hockey this season. Both teams have been struggling lately as the Leafs have lost five straight and the Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 games, so I see no value on either side. The Rangers are 3-1 to the under in their last 4 games, while Toronto’s offense has been struggling mightily, having scored two goals or less in four of their last five games, Their previous meeting had only three total goals, so I will go with the under 6 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 6