Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars Prediction 12/21/2025 Today’s NHL Picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Dallas Stars meet Sunday in NHL action at the American Airlines Center. Here’s a Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars Prediction. This article will include a Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars Pick.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Capitals and Predators, and they play the Predators next. The Maple Leafs have lost 4 of their last 6 games.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are averaging 3.18 goals per game and are scoring 14 percent of their power-play opportunities. Auston Matthews leads Toronto with 14 goals, William Nylander has 25 assists, and John Tavares has 94 shots on goal. Defensively, the Toronto Maple Leafs are allowing 3.29 goals per game and are killing 82.6 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Anthony Stolarz has allowed 41 goals on 353 shots faced, while Dennis Hildeby has given up 28 goals on 328 shots.

Dallas Stars Betting Preview

The Dallas Stars beat the Ducks and Sharks, and they play the Red Wings next. The Stars have won 3 straight games.

The Dallas Stars are averaging 3.47 goals per game and are scoring on 32.1 percent of their power play opportunities. Jason Robertson leads Dallas with 22 goals, Mikko Rantanen has 34 assists and Wyatt Johnston has 91 shots on goal. Defensively, the Dallas Stars are allowing 2.61 goals per game and are killing 83.3 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Jake Oettinger has allowed 59 goals on 637 shots faced, while Casey DeSmith has given up 29 goals on 364 shots.

Why the Dallas Stars will win

• The Stars have won each of their last 13 Sunday games at American Airlines Center.
• The Maple Leafs have lost four of their last five road games against Central Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five road games against Central Division opponents.
• The Stars have covered the puck line in five of their last six night games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the third period in four of their last five road games against Central Division opponents.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Maple Leafs have won eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against the Stars.
• The Stars have lost two of their last three games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the last seven games between the Maple Leafs and Stars at American Airlines Center.
• The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games as favorites following a road win.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last five games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Stars’ last four home games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in nine of the Maple Leafs’ last 10 games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in 12 of the last 13 games between the Maple Leafs and Stars.

Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts

• Wyatt Johnston has scored at least one goal in 10 of the Stars’ last 11 Sunday games at American Airlines Center.
• Mikko Rantanen has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Stars’ last eight games at American Airlines Center.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• John Tavares has scored a goal in five of his last six appearances after playing less than 20 minutes the previous day.
• Auston Matthews has recorded an assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games as road underdogs against the Stars.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Dallas Stars are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Dallas Stars rank 5th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.61).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 32nd in the league for power play goals this season (12).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 31st in the league for shots against per game this season (31.3).

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars Prediction

The Maple Leafs have won 8 of the last 10 games against the Stars, so they’re worth a look in the underdog role. The problem is the Maple Leafs are back to their losing ways and hey haven’t shown the ability to fix things on the road. The Stars are also a team we’ve blindly backed for much of the season, and they continue to cash tickets for us. The Stars are also lighting the world on fire offensively, which isn’t great news for a struggling Toronto defense. Give me the Stars and the PL for max betting value.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Dallas Stars