Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction 3/14/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Sabres Prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, March 14th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Buffalo Sabres Preview

The Sabres have 86 points this season with a 40-20-6 record, and are 37-28 ATS and 31-31 in over/under. They have a 21-9-3 home record and a 19-11-3 road record and are sitting 2nd in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 2-1 home win over the Capitals, and their previous three games were a 6-3 home win over the Sharks, a 8-7 home win over the Lightning, and a 3-2 home win over the Predators.

Offensively, the Sabres are averaging 3.47 goals per game and are scoring 20.6% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.00 goals per game and are killing 82.7% of their opponent’s power plays.

Tage Thompson leads the Sabres with 70 points and 34 goals, while Rasmus Dahlin leads the team in assists with 47. Alex Lyon is the starting goalie for the Sabres, and he has a 18-8-3 record, with 2.65 GAA and .914 SV%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the backup goalie and he has a 15-8-2 record, with 2.71 GAA and .905 SV%.

Toronto Maple Leafs Preview

The Maple Leafs have 67 points this season with a 28-27-11 record, and are 26-39 ATS and 36-24 in over/under. They have a 17-11-7 home record and a 11-16-4 road record and are sitting 8th in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 6-4 home win over the Ducks, and their previous three games were a 3-1 road loss to the Canadiens, a 5-2 home win over the Lightning, and a 6-2 road win over the Rangers.

Offensively, the Maple Leafs are averaging 3.15 goals per game and are scoring 20.1% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.49 goals per game and are killing 83.5% of their opponent’s power plays.

William Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with 62 points and 23 goals, adding a team-high 39 assists. Joseph Woll is the starting goalie for the Maple Leafs, and he has a 14-11-4 record, with 3.13 GAA and .905 SV%. Anthony Stolarz is the backup goalie and he has a 7-9-3 record, with 3.40 GAA and .890 SV%.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Buffalo Sabres Betting Trends: March 14, 2026

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last 10 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Sabres have won eight of their last nine games.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in each of their last six games following a home loss.
• The Sabres have won the second period in each of their last six games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents when trailing after the first period.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Sabres have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have won seven of their last eight night games at KeyBank Center following a win.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against the Sabres.
• The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six games as home favorites.
• The Sabres have lost the third period in seven of their last eight games as home favorites when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last nine Saturday games as underdogs have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Nine of the Sabres’ last 10 games as favorites following a home loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Alex Tuch has scored at least one goal in each of his last four appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Tage Thompson has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last six home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Rasmus Dahlin has scored three goals against the Maple Leafs this season – most against any opponent.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Matias Maccelli has scored the first goal in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games.
• Morgan Rielly has recorded an assist in five of his last six appearances at KeyBank Center.
• Auston Matthews has scored a goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last five road games against the Sabres.
• Oliver Ekman-Larsson has recorded three assists against the Sabres this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Buffalo Sabres rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.68%).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 5th in the league for goals per game this season (3.47).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 30th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.48).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (83.53%).

Maple Leafs vs Sabres Prediction

The Sabres are 2-1 in their three previous meetings against the Leafs this season, having won their only meeting in Buffalo with a 5-3 score, as all three games went over the total.

In this Maple Leafs vs Sabres Prediction, the Sabres are coming as -240 home favorites. The Sabres have been the better team this season and are playing against a Leafs squad that has been the second-worse road team in hockey. The Sabres are coming off a rare loss and this is the perfect bounce back spot as the Leafs are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have five consecutive road defeats, with four of them being by two goals or more. Take the Sabres on the puckline in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Buffalo Sabres -1.5