Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals Prediction 10/14/2025 Today’s NHL Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Washington Capitals meet Tuesday in NHL action from the Capital One Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals prediction.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to add on to their 4-3 win over the Boston Bruins last time out to sit at 1-2 on the year. After this game, Tampa Bay will head on the road for a game against the Detroit Red Wings.

Lightning Looking To Add On To First Win

Jake Guentzel leads the Lightning with 4 assists while Brayden Point has 4 points with a goal and 3 assists. Maxwell Crozier and Gage Goncalves each have 3 assists while Oliver Bjorkstrand and Darren Raddysh each have a goal and 2 assists for their 3 points. Victor Hedman has 2 assists and Pontus Holmberg has a goal and an assist while Anthony Cirelli, Yanni Gourde and Nikita Kucherov each have 2 goals so far this season. Ryan McDonagh’s chipped in a goal as well while Brandon Hagel’s added an assist. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 0-2 with a 4.67 GAA and an .855 save percentage in goal for Tampa Bay so far this season while Jonas Johansson is 1-0 with a 3.02 GAA and a .909 save percentage so far this season. 

Washington Capitals Recap

The Washington Capitals come into this game looking to add on to their 1-0 win over the Rangers last time out to sit at 2-1 this season. After this game, the Capitals will take on the Minnesota Wild in a game at home. 

Capitals Win Back-To-Back Games

Aliaksei Protas has 4 points with 2 goals and 2 assists while Jakob Chychrun has a team-high 3 assists. Alex Ovechkin has 2 assists and Tom Wilson has a goal and an assist so far this season. Ryan Leonard, Martin Fehervary and Anthony Beauvillier each have a goal while Declan Chisholm and John Carlson each have an assist. Logan Thompson has gone 1-1 with a 2.03 GAA and a .930 save percentage in goal for Washington while Charlie Lindgren’s gone 1-0 with a 0.00 GAA and a 1.000 save percentage so far this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Washington Capitals Betting Trends: October 14, 2025

Why the Washington Capitals will win

• The Lightning have lost each of their last seven night games.
• The Capitals have won each of their last six night games at Capital One Arena following a road win.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven night games.
• The Capitals have covered the puck line in each of their last six night games at Capital One Arena following a road win.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in each of their last seven night games.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The road team has won seven of the Lightning’s last eight games.
• The Capitals have lost three of their last four home games.
• The Capitals have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six games.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in five of the Lightning’s last six games at Capital One Arena.
• The Capitals have lost the third period in 10 of their last 11 games against Eastern Conference opponents when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Capitals’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Lightning’s last six games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 14 Tuesday games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in four of the Capitals’ last five games following a road win.

Washington Capitals Player Prop Facts

• Tom Wilson has scored a goal in each of the Capitals’ last three games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• John Carlson has recorded at least one assist in each of the Capitals’ last nine Tuesday games against Eastern Conference opponents at Capital One Arena.
• Tom Wilson has recorded at least one point in each of the Capitals’ last nine home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Anthony Beauvillier has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances – [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in four of his last five appearances after playing the previous day.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded at least one assist in each of his last four appearances in night games at Capital One Arena.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded at least one point in 11 of his last 12 road appearances after playing less than 20 minutes the previous day.
• Jake Guentzel ranks T1st in the league for multi-assist games (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Washington Capitals rank 31st in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (57.14%).
• The Washington Capitals rank T3rd in the league for goals against per game this season (1.67).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T28th in the league for goals against per game this season (4.33).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T6th in the league in power play percentage this season (25.00%).

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals Prediction

I’m on the Capitals here. The Lightning weren’t the best team on a back-to-back last year and Washington was really good at taking advantage of their rest advantage when they had it. Washington’s been really solid out of the gate defensively and I think the Caps defend home ice here. Give me the Capitals at home in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Washington -125