Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction 3/7/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs meet Saturday in NHL action at the Scotiabank Arena. Here’s a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction. This article will include a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs pick.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Wild and Jets, and they play the Sabres next. The Lightning have lost 4 straight games.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 3.45 goals per game and are scoring on 21.8 percent of their power-play opportunities. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 32 goals, Jake Guentzel has 39 assists, and Brandon Hagel has 165 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 2.67 goals per game and are killing 83.2 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 92 goals on 1,058 shots faced, while Jonas Johansson has given up 59 goals on 537 shots.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Devils and Rangers, and they play the Habs next. The Maple Leafs have lost 6 straight games.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are averaging 3.16 goals per game and are scoring 19.7 percent of their power-play opportunities. Auston Matthews leads Toronto with 26 goals, William Nylander has 37 assists, and John Tavares has 153 shots on goal. Defensively, the Toronto Maple Leafs are allowing 3.46 goals per game and are killing 83 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Joseph Woll has allowed 82 goals on 840 shots faced, while Dennis Hildeby has given up 46 goals on 511 shots.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Lightning have lost each of their last three games as road favorites.
• The underdogs have won each of the Lightning’s last three games.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in six of their last seven games as road favorites.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in six of their last seven games as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost the second period in five of their last six games at Scotiabank Arena when trailing after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last eight night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have won six of their last seven night games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven games at Scotiabank Arena.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in five of their last six night games at Scotiabank Arena following a road loss.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the second period in four of their last five games as underdogs at Scotiabank Arena when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight Saturday games as home underdogs has gone OVER the total goals line.
• Eight of the Lightning’s last nine night games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games at Scotiabank Arena.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven Saturday games.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Matias Maccelli has recorded an assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four night games at Scotiabank Arena.
• Auston Matthews has scored at least one goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six games against the Lightning at Scotiabank Arena.
• Morgan Rielly has scored 10 career goals against the Lightning—the most against any opponent (including playoffs).

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored a goal in four of the Lightning’s last five road games.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last four road games.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks 2nd in the league for assists (64) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 32nd in the league for shots against per game this season (31.9).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T1st in the league for power play goals against this season (27).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 5th in the league for goals per game this season (3.45).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 5th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (83.16%).

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

You can make a case for either side, as both teams are having a rough week. The Maple Leafs have also won 7 of the last 10 games against the Lightning. Still, the Lightning have shown us far more over the last month of action than the Leafs. Toronto, much like the Panthers, feels like a team that’s accepted this won’t be its season and is checking out with about a month left to play. That struggling Leafs defense is just what the doctor ordered for the Lightning. Give me the Lightning and the PL for max betting value.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5