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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Prediction 4/28/25 NHL Picks
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Florida Panthers (47-31-4) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (47-27-8)
April 28, 2025 at 07:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Florida Panthers -142 / Tampa Bay Lightning +120 — Over/Under: 5.5
In this article, we will formulate a Lightning vs Panthers prediction for this NHL game on Monday, April 28, at the Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, FL. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (48-29-8, 44-41 ATS) managed to pull one back after losing the opening two games of the Round 1 series against the Florida Panthers at home. After scoring just two goals in those two defeats, the Bolts scored five in a 5-1 victory in Game 3 and will try to tie the series on Monday. The Lightning were losing 1-0 but then scored five straight goals to make it 2-1 in the series. Brayden Point, Nick Paul, Jake Guentzel, Luke Glendening, and Anthony Cirelli scored for Tampa Bay, while Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 34 shots he faced.
The Lightning average 3.56 goals per game this year (1st), while they allow 2.63 GPG (4th). Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 125 points (37 G and 88 A). Brandon Hagel contributes 92 points (37 G and 55 A), while Jake Guentzel has 84 points (44 G and 40 A).
Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-22-5) will likely take his place in the cage for the Lightning on Monday against the Panthers. The 30-year-old is allowing 2.18 goals per game this year with a .921 SV% and six shutouts.
Florida Panthers Betting Preview
The Florida Panthers (49-32-4, 37-48 ATS) secured a pair of convincing road wins to open this series on the road, but failed to get to a 3-0 lead at home as they succumbed to a 5-1 defeat to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Matthew Tkachuk got the Panthers a 1-0 lead early in the 1st period, but that was all from them offensively, as the Bolts scored five unanswered. Florida outshot Tampa 34-22, while Sergei Bobrovsky saved 17 of 21 shots he faced.
The Panthers score 3.00 goals per game on average (15th), while they concede 2.72 GPG (7th). This season, Sam Reinhart leads the team with 84 points (40 G and 44 A). Aleksander Barkov has 74 points (20 G and 54 A), while Matthew Tkachuk chips in with 61 points (25 G and 36 A).
Sergei Bobrovsky (34-21-2) is expected to start for the Panthers at the goal on Monday against the Lightning. The 36-year-old is allowing 2.44 goals per game this year with a .906 SV% and five shutouts.
Total Goals Facts
- Seven of the Lightning’s last eight games against the Panthers following a road win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Each of the Panthers’ last four games against the Lightning following a loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Three of the last four night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in four of the Panthers’ last five games.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last five games as underdogs.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Florida Panthers rank 2nd in the league in short handed goals this season (12).
- The Florida Panthers rank 3rd in the league for shots per game this season (31.6).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.63).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 5th in the league in power play percentage this season (25.86%).
Lightning vs Panthers Prediction
The Panthers won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of seven duels this season. The Panthers still have an upper hand in this series, but after winning Game 3, the Bolts will give everything they have to restore the home-ice advantage for Game 5 with a win here. It’s going to be an exciting game with a lot of goals. Three of the last four H2Hs went Over, which was the case in seven of Tampa’s previous ten games. I expect a minimum of six goals on Monday, so give me the Over.
