Penguins vs Lightning Prediction 4/2/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Penguins vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, April 2nd at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins are 38-21-16 this season after they defeated the Red Wings by a score of 5-1 in their last game. Pittsburgh scored three goals in the first period and they cruised to the easy win, as Detroit didn’t put up a fight. The Penguins out shot Detroit by a total of 32-23, won 47.5% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Pittsburgh got goals from Acciari, Brazeau, Chinakhov, Mantha, and Rakell, while Skinner stopped 22 out of 23 shots, which was a .957 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Pittsburgh defeated the Islanders by a score of 8-3, but lost to the Stars by a score of 6-3 before that. The Penguins have won three of their last four games and they are currently second in the Metro standings with 92 points. Pittsburgh has scored 3.47 goals per game and they have allowed 3.04 goals against per game, while also going 23.9% on the power play and 81.4% on the penalty kill this season. Sidney Crosby has led Pittsburgh with 28 goals and 39 assists, while Bryan Rust has added 27 goals and 34 assists. The projected starting goalie for Pittsburgh is Stuart Skinner, who is 11-7-5 with a 2.90 goals against average and an .888 save percentage this season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 46-22-6 this year after they lost to the Canadiens by a score of 4-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay tied the game at one in the first period, but they were outscored 3-0 the rest of the way for the loss. The Lightning out shot Montreal by a total of 37-23, won 45.9% of the face-offs, and went 0-4 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got their lone goal from Guentzel, while Vasilevskiy stopped 19 out of 21 shots, which was a .905 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Predators by a score of 3-2 and the Senators by a score of 4-2. The Lightning have won three of their last five games and they are currently second in the Atlantic standings with 98 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.57 goals per game and they have allowed 2.77 goals against per game, while also going 22.1% on the power play and 82.1% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 40 goals and 81 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 36 goals and 45 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 35-13-4 with a 2.32 goals against average and a .912 save percentage this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Penguins have lost each of their last five games following a home win.
• The Lightning have won five of their last six games following a loss.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last four games as favorites following a loss.
• The Penguins have lost the first period in four of their last five night games at Benchmark International Arena.

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Penguins have won five of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Lightning.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last seven games against the Lightning following a win.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in each of their last four night games against Metropolitan Division opponents.

Total Goals Facts

• Ten of the Penguins’ last 11 night games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Fifteen of the Lightning’s last 18 night games against the Penguins following a loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the last 15 games between the Penguins and Lightning at Benchmark International Arena.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 18 of the Penguins’ last 19 road games against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Jake Guentzel has scored a goal in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games as favorites.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last five games against the Penguins at Benchmark International Arena.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Rust has scored a goal in four of the Penguins’ last five road games.
• Kris Letang has recorded an assist in each of the Penguins’ last seven Thursday games at Benchmark International Arena.

Penguins vs Lightning Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup after winning three of their last four games and they have scored 20 goals during that span. The Penguins are 20-9-8 on the road this year, while the Lightning are 23-13-1 at home. Tampa Bay has won two of their last three games, but they did lose to Montreal last time out. The Lightning are still chasing the Sabres in the Atlantic, but they are also just two points up on Montreal, so this is a big game for each side. The Penguins are scoring at a very fast rate right now and TB has allowed four goals in two of their last four, so I like the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 6.5