Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 10/9/2025 Today’s NHL Picks

The Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Thursday in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena. Here’s a Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction. This article will include a Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick.

Ottawa Senators Betting Preview

The Ottawa Senators won 45 games last year and made the playoffs for the first time since the 2016-17 season. It’s time to see if the Senators can build on such efforts.

The Senators will be led by their defense, as Jake Sanderson, Artem Zub and Thomas Chabot are quality defenders. Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen makes for a strong goalie tandem as well. Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk is a nice 1-2 punch to drive the offense, but the unit has to find easier offense as it was horrible when 5 on 5. Still, for the first time in a while, the Senators have some promise and will be worth a watch as the improved defensive effort makes them a playoff contender for a second straight season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning have made the playoffs in each of the last 8 years, but they’ve been first round exits in the last three. The Lightning hope this is the year they right the ship and return to being a force in the league.

The Lightning have a lot of the same faces as usual. Nikita Kucherov is the heart of the team and one of the best offensive players in the sport. Brayden Point has emerged as a consistent goalscorer. Victor Hedman is the aging vet who holds things down on the defensive side. Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the best goalies in the league. The newly acquired Jake Guentzel and Ryan McDonagh provide depth to the team overall. When everything comes together, the Lightning are still an above-average team that’s capable of making a deep playoff run. Don’t write off this group just yet due to the lack of recent playoff success.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won 11 of their last 13 home openers.
• The Senators have lost four of their last five road games.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in eight of their last nine road openers.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in three of their last four season openers as favorites.
• In five of the Lightning’s last six night games, the team leading after the second period has won the third period.

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Lightning have lost each of their last five night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The underdogs have won three of the Senators’ last four games.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in each of their last five night games against Eastern Conference opponents.

Total Goals Facts

• Nine of the Lightning’s last 10 night games against Atlantic Division opponents at Benchmark International Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Eight of the last 10 night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Three of the Senators’ last four road openers have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in 18 of the Lightning’s last 19 games as favorites against the Senators.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 14 of the Senators’ last 15 games at Benchmark International Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brayden Point has scored a goal in six of his last seven appearances against the Senators at Benchmark International Arena.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 16 of his last 20 appearances with the Lightning as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Ryan McDonagh has recorded a point in each of his last five appearances against the Senators.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Brady Tkachuk has scored a goal in four of the Senators’ last five games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Tim Stutzle has recorded an assist in each of his last six appearances against the Lightning after playing less than 20 minutes in the Senators’ last game.
• Tim Stutzle has recorded at least one point in each of his last seven appearances with the Senators as underdogs against the Lightning.

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

The Senators and plus money is worth a look because of their defensive pressure and the fact they made the playoffs last year. The Senators should have some new confidence this season after a taste of success. The Senators have also won 7 of the last 10 games against the Lightning. With that said, the Lightning are still the Lightning, a team that’s usually a tough out at home and one that usually doesn’t lose to lesser teams. I like the Lightning to get off to a strong start with a nice home win.