Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction 10/8/2025 Today’s NHL Picks

The Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet Wednesday in NHL action from Scotiabank Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction.

Montreal Canadiens Team Preview

The Montreal Canadiens come into the 2025-26 season looking to continue their growth after finishing in the playoffs last season, going from dead in the water early in December to a contender in February. The Canadiens snuck into the playoffs and while their stay was brief thanks to the Washington Capitals, the Habs gave Washington all they could handle in that series in fairness. The core of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky all putting up personal career bests in points is a big deal, and the addition of a young fireball in Ivan Demidov gives the Habs another solid option in their top-six forwards. On defense, Lane Hutson is coming off of a fantastic season where he won the Calder trophy and alongside Kaiden Guhle, make up a strong pair atop Montreal’s d-core, in addition to the addition of Noah Dobson in the offseason. The Canadiens have a decent goaltending pairing in Sam Montembault and Jakub Dobes but Kaapo Kahkonen is ready and waiting if one of those two falter.

Toronto Maple Leafs Team Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into the 2025-26 season with a big of a new framework, but the goal remains the same as they exorcised some demons in 2024-25, taking out the Senators in the first round before falling short in seven games against the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. The Maple Leafs decided to move on from Mitch Marner, which could be a big deal considering Marner’s 102 points led the Leafs and were a career high last year. Matthew Knies will take an increased role in Toronto’s offense alongside Auston Matthews, who had 33 goals last year, which is down by his standards, but he was up and down with injuries last year. Toronto got a quality forward in Nicolas Roy in the Marner deal and picked up Matias Maccelli from Utah to add forward depth. William Nylander and John Tavares are also strong pieces in this forward group and Nylander has potential to pot 40 goals once again after doing it in each of hte last three years. The Leafs run back a lot of the defensive pairings from last year with Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev, Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Between the pipes, the Leafs brought back Anthony Stolarz on a massive discounted deal after boasting one of the best save percentages in the NHL last season and will hope for a speedy return for Joseph Woll to the Leafs’ locker room as Woll deals with off ice matters.

Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends: October 8, 2025

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last nine home openers.
• The Canadiens have lost each of their last seven games at Scotiabank Arena.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four games.
• The favorites have covered the puck line in three of the Maple Leafs’ last four games.
• The home team has won the second period in each of the Canadiens’ last six games.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won six of their last eight games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have lost four of their last five games.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last seven season openers.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five season openers.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the third period in five of their last six home games.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last four home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the last six games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in five of the Canadiens’ last six games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight home games.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• William Nylander has scored a goal in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five home games against the Canadiens.
• William Nylander has recorded at least one point in 12 of the Maple Leafs’ last 13 home games against the Canadiens.
• Travis Boyd has recorded at least one assist in four of his last five appearances with his team as a home favorite.
• William Nylander ranked T1st in the league for multi-goal games (10) last season.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Juraj Slafkovsky has recorded an assist in three of the Canadiens’ last four games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Nick Suzuki has scored at least one goal in six of the Canadiens’ last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one point in six of the Canadiens’ last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Patrik Laine ranked 4th in the league for Power Play Goals (15) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked T7th in the league for goals per game last season (3.26).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs were one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game last season.
• The Montreal Canadiens suffered the equal-largest margin of defeat in a home game last season (7-goals vs Penguins on December, 12).
• The Montreal Canadiens ranked 30th in the league for shots per game last season (25.6).

Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

I’m on the Canadiens +1.5 here. Toronto just has issues early in the season with these division matchups and this could be another one. The Canadiens were really strong against the Atlantic division for much of last season, and we could see more of the same early on this year. I’ll take a chance on Montreal to keep this one close early on to start the year.