Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction 2/25/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Wednesday, February 25th at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 27-21-9 this year after they defeated Edmonton by a score of 5-2 in their last game. Toronto was tied at two in the third period, but they scored the last three goals to pull away with the win. The Maple Leafs were out shot by a total of 36-27, won 53.7% of the face-offs, and went 2-2 on the power play in the game. Toronto got goals from Knies, Maccelli (2), McMann, and Tavares, while Stolarz stopped 34 out of 36 shots, which was a .944 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Toronto defeated the Flames by a score of 4-2 and the Canucks by a score of 3-2. The Maple Leafs have won three games in a row and they are currently second to last in the Atlantic standings with 63 points. Toronto has scored 3.28 goals per game and they have allowed 3.39 goals against per game, while also going 18.8% on the power play and 83.7% on the penalty kill this season. William Nylander has led Toronto with 18 goals and 34 assists, while Auston Matthews has added 26 goals and 22 assists. The projected starting goalie for Toronto is Joseph Woll, who is 13-7-4 with a 2.92 goals against average and a .910 save percentage this year. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 37-14-4 this season after they defeated Florida by a score of 6-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay scored the first five goals in the game, but they allowed a goal in the third to ruin the shutout. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 34-28, won 44.6% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Bjorkstrand, Girgensons, Guentzel, Hagel, Holmberg, and Cernak, while Vasilevskiy stopped 33 out of 34 shots, which was a .971 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Sabres by a score of 4-3 and the Bruins by a score of 6-5. The Lightning have won five games in a row and they are currently first in the Atlantic standings with 78 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.55 goals per game and they have allowed 2.51 goals against per game, while also going 22.4% on the power play and 83.9% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 29 goals and 62 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 26 goals and 34 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 27-7-3 with a 2.11 goals against average and a .920 save percentage this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last 13 games following a home win.
• The Maple Leafs have lost four of their last five games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight night games against the Maple Leafs following a home win.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last three night games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the third period in five of their last six night games at Benchmark International Arena when leading after the second period.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Maple Leafs have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in each of their last five games against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have lost the second period in three of their last four games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents at Benchmark International Arena when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the last eight night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight night games against the Lightning following a road win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in 16 of the Maple Leafs’ last 17 games as underdogs.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven Wednesday at Benchmark International Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Darren Raddysh has scored a goal in five of the Lightning’s last six games as favorites.
• Victor Hedman has recorded at least one assist in each of his last eight Wednesday appearances at Benchmark International Arena.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks 1st in the league for multi-point games (31) this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• John Tavares has scored a goal in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five road games against the Lightning.
• William Nylander has recorded at least one assist in five of his last six appearances in night games.
• Troy Stecher has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances – [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (83.91%).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 32nd in the league for shots against per game this season (31.6).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T1st in the league for power play goals against this season (23).

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup on a five game winning streak and they have been red hot over the last month. The Lightning are 18-9-0 at home this year, while the Maple Leafs are 11-12-3 on the road. Toronto has won three in a row, but they have struggled for most of the year and they have a lot of work to do if they want to make the playoffs. I think Tampa Bay has a nice advantage in this game with Kucherov having plenty of rest and they are just the better team, so I like them -1.5 here.

David Racey's Pick: Lightning -1.5