Lightning vs Capitals Prediction 3/1/25 NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Capitals prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, March 1st at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 34-20-4 this year after they defeated Calgary by a score of 3-0 in their last game. Tampa Bay scored once in the first and twice in the third for the shutout win. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 28-22, won 45.6% of the face-offs, and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Hagel, Kucherov, and Cernak, while Vasilevskiy stopped all 28 shots that he faced in the game. 

Prior to that shutout win, the Lightning defeated the Oilers by a score of 4-1 and the Kraken by a score of 4-1. Tampa Bay has won seven games in a row and they are currently third in the Atlantic standings with 72 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.57 goals per game and they have allowed 2.66 goals against per game, while also going 27.2% on the power play and 80.7% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led Tampa Bay with 27 goals, 59 assists, and 189 shots on goal, while Brandon Hagel has added 29 goals, 38 assists, and 168 shots on goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 28-15-3 with a 2.26 goals against average and a .923 save percentage this year. 

Washington Capitals Betting Preview

The Washington Capitals are 38-13-8 this season after they lost to St. Louis by a score of 5-2 in their last game. Washington tied the game at two late in the second period, but they allowed the last three goals in the game for the loss. The Capitals were out shot by a total of 19-18, won 34% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Washington got goals from Dubois and McMichael, while Lindgren stopped 14 out of 18 shots in the game. 

Prior to that loss, the Capitals lost to the Flames by a score of 3-1, but did beat the Oilers by a score of 7-3 before that. Washington has lost three of their last five games and they are currently first in the Metro standings with 84 points. Washington has scored 3.63 goals per game and they have allowed 2.56 goals against per game, while also going 24.1% on the power play and 82.2% on the penalty kill this season. Dylan Strome has led Washington with 18 goals, 41 assists, and 109 shots on goal, while Alex Ovechkin has added 30 goals, 17 assists, and 163 shots on goal this year. Charlie Lindgren is 13-10-3 with a 2.70 goals against average and an .898 save percentage this season. 

Why the Lightning will beat the Capitals 

• The Lightning have won eight of their last nine games.
• The Capitals have lost each of their last three day games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last six games following a win.
• The Capitals have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four games at Capital One Arena.
• The Capitals have lost the first period in three of their last four games at Capital One Arena.

Total Goals Facts

• Eight of the Capitals’ last nine games at Capital One Arena following a home loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Lightning’s last six games against opponents on a losing streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Capitals’ last six home games.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in three of the Lightning’s last four road games.

Washington Capitals Player Prop Facts

• Dylan Strome has scored a goal in each of the Capitals’ last four day games.
• John Carlson has recorded at least one assist in nine of the Capitals’ last 10 games.
• Dylan Strome has recorded at least one point in 14 of the Capitals’ last 15 day games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last nine appearances in day games.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 11 of his last 12 appearances in day games.
• Brandon Hagel has scored at least one goal in six of the Lightning’s last seven games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Washington Capitals are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Washington Capitals rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.25%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 6th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.66).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of six teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.

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Lightning vs Capitals Prediction 

Washington has been one of the best teams in the NHL so far this season, but they have slowed down over their last 11 games. The Capitals are 18-6-6 at home this year, while the Lightning are 13-13-2 on the road. Tampa Bay has won seven games in a row and they are battling with Toronto and Florida in the Atlantic division. The Lightning have allowed a total of two goals in their last three games and Vasilevskiy is playing at an unreal level right now. If Thompson starts in net for Washington, they have a shot to get the win, but Lindgren has had some struggles. I know Washington has been money on home ice, but Tampa Bay is red hot and their goalie is in the zone. Take the Lightning in this one.