Lightning vs Bruins Prediction 4/11/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Bruins prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, April 11th at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 48-25-6 this season after they lost to the Canadiens by a score of 2-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay tied the game at one late in the third period, but they allowed a goal with 64 seconds left for the loss. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 21-18, won 47.6% of the face-offs, and went 0-4 on the power play in the game. TB got their lone goal from Raddysh, while Vasilevskiy stopped 19 out of 21 shots, which was a .905 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay lost to the Senators by a score of 6-2 and the Sabres by a score of 4-2. The Lightning have lost three games in a row and they are currently third in the Atlantic standings with 102 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.52 goals per game and they have allowed 2.80 goals against per game, while also going 21.2% on the power play and 82.5% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 43 goals and 85 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 37 goals and 49 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 37-15-4 with a 2.32 goals against average and a .912 save percentage this season. 

Boston Bruins Betting Preview

The Boston Bruins are 43-26-10 this year after they lost to the Hurricanes in overtime by a score of 6-5 in their last game. Boston trailed 5-3 in the second period, but they tied the game at five in the third, before losing in OT. The Bruins were out shot by a total of 41-21, won 56.3% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Boston got goals from Geekie (3), Zacha, and Lindholm, while Swayman stopped 19 out of 24 shots and Korpisalo stopped 16 out of 17. 

Prior to that game, Boston lost to the Flyers by a score of 2-1 and the Lightning by a score of 3-1. The Bruins have lost four games in a row and they are currently fourth in the Atlantic standings with 96 points. Boston has scored 3.33 goals per game and they have allowed 3.05 goals against per game, while also going 23.8% on the power play and 76.3% on the penalty kill this season. David Pastrnak has led Boston with 29 goals and 67 assists, while Morgan Geekie has added 34 goals and 29 assists. The projected starting goalie for Boston is Jeremy Swayman, who is 30-16-4 with a 2.71 goals against average and a .908 save percentage this season. 

Why the Boston Bruins will win

• The Bruins have won each of their last seven home games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last three games as road favorites.
• The Bruins have covered the puck line in each of their last nine day games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games when playing with a rest disadvantage against Bruins.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in four of their last five games at TD Garden when trailing after the second period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won seven of their last eight day games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Bruins have lost each of their last four games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in seven of their last nine day games.
• The Bruins have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Bruins have lost the third period in each of their last four games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Bruins’ last four games after coming off overtime have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Lightning’s last six Saturday games as road favorites have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the last nine games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in seven of the Bruins’ last eight games as underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven games following a road loss.

Boston Bruins Player Prop Facts

• Elias Lindholm has scored at least one goal in each of the Bruins’ last three home games.
• David Pastrnak has recorded at least one assist in each of the Bruins’ last seven games at TD Garden.
• Casey Mittelstadt has scored two goals against the Lightning this season – most against any opponent.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Darren Raddysh has scored a goal in each of his last three appearances with the Lightning as favorites against the Bruins.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of his last seven appearances in day games.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks 2nd in the league for Points (128) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Boston Bruins rank 2nd in the league in penalty minutes this season (966).
• The Boston Bruins rank T30th in the league in short handed goals this season (2).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.47%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.52).

Lightning vs Bruins Prediction 

Boston comes into this matchup on a four game losing streak, but their last two games did go to overtime. The Bruins are 28-10-1 at home this year, while the Lightning are 23-12-5 on the road. Tampa Bay has lost three in a row and they have scored two goals or fewer in all three losses. The Lightning are battling for seeding in the Atlantic standings and they just beat Boston 3-1 last week. Neither team is playing very well, but both offenses are struggling to score, so I will take the under here.

David Racey's Pick: Under 6.5