Hurricanes vs Lightning Prediction 3/14/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Hurricanes vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, March 14th at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Carolina Hurricanes Betting Preview

The Carolina Hurricanes are 41-18-6 this season after they lost to the Blues by a score of 3-1 in their last game. Carolina led 1-0 after the first period, but they allowed one goal in the second and two in the third for the loss. The Hurricanes out shot St. Louis by a total of 32-17, won 50% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Carolina got their lone goal from Jankowski, while Bussi stopped 14 out of 16 shots, which was an .875 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Carolina defeated the Penguins by a score of 5-4, but lost to the Flames by a score of 5-4 before that. The Hurricanes have won three of their last five games and they are currently first in the Metro standings with 88 points. The Hurricanes have scored 3.46 goals per game and they have allowed 2.88 goals against per game, while also going 22.2% on the power play and 79.7% on the penalty kill this season. Sebastian Aho has led Carolina with 23 goals and 43 assists, while Andrei Svechnikov has added 23 goals and 33 assists. The projected starting goalie for Carolina is Brandon Bussi, who is 25-5-1 with a 2.37 goals against average and an .899 save percentage this season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 40-20-4 this year after they defeated the Red Wings by a score of 4-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay had their lead cut to 2-1 in the third period, but they scored two goals in the last few minutes to seal the win. The Lightning out shot Detroit by a total of 29-25, won 50% of the face-offs, and went 1-1 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Goncalves (2) and Guentzel (2), while Vasilevskiy stopped 24 out of 25 shots, which was a .960 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay lost to the Blue Jackets by a score of 5-2 and the Sabres by a score of 8-7. The Lightning have lost six of their last eight games and they are currently second in the Atlantic standings with 84 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.52 goals per game and they have allowed 2.75 goals against per game, while also going 22.2% on the power play and 81.5% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 34 goals and 72 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 29 goals and 40 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 30-11-3 with a 2.29 goals against average and a .914 save percentage this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last 11 games at Benchmark International Arena following a win.
• The Hurricanes have lost three of their last four games at Benchmark International Arena.
• The Hurricanes have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in five of their last six games at Benchmark International Arena following a win.
• The Hurricanes have lost the third period in each of their last five games as underdogs.

Why the Carolina Hurricanes will win

• The Hurricanes have won 10 of their last 11 games following a home loss.
• The Lightning have lost five of their last seven games as favorites.
• The Hurricanes have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight night games following a home loss.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four games against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in each of their last three games when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Hurricanes’ last nine night games against the Lightning following a home loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Lightning’s last seven Saturday games as favorites have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven Saturday games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in seven of the Hurricanes’ last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 13 of his last 14 appearances against the Hurricanes at Benchmark International Arena.
• Brayden Point has scored a goal in seven of the Lightning’s last nine games as favorites against the Hurricanes.

Carolina Hurricanes Player Prop Facts

• Sebastian Aho has recorded at least one assist in four of the Hurricanes’ last five games.
• Seth Jarvis has scored at least one goal in four of the Hurricanes’ last five games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Hurricanes vs Lightning Prediction

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup with the home ice advantage, but they have struggled over the last two weeks. The Lightning are 20-11-0 at home this year, while the Hurricanes are 17-9-4 on the road. Carolina has lost two of their last three games, but they have scored at least four goals in four of their last five. These two teams are pretty evenly matched and neither are in very good form right now, so I will side with Tampa Bay at home and hope their defense comes to play. Take the Lightning here.

David Racey's Pick: Lightning ML