Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction 3/28/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Stars vs Penguins Prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, March 28th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins Preview

The Penguins have 88 points this season with a 36-20-16 record, and are 43-29 ATS and 40-30 in over/under. They have a 17-11-8 home record and a 19-9-8 road record and are sitting 2nd in the Metropolitan Division. They are coming off a 4-3 road shootout win over the Senators, and their previous three games were a 6-2 home loss to the Avalanche, a 5-1 home loss to the Hurricanes, and a 5-4 home shootout win over the Jets.

Offensively, the Penguins are averaging 3.39 goals per game and are scoring 24.4% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.03 goals per game and are killing 82.6% of their opponent’s power plays.

Sidney Crosby leads the Penguins with 64 points and 28 goals, while Erik Karlsson leads the team in assists with 45. Stuart Skinner is the starting goalie for the Penguins, and he has a 21-14-9 record, with 2.88 GAA and .889 SV%. Arturs Silovs is the backup goalie and he has a 16-10-8 record, with 2.99 GAA and .891 SV%.

Dallas Stars Preview

The Stars have 97 points this season with a 43-18-11 record, and are 29-43 ATS and 35-36 in over/under. They have a 22-10-4 home record and a 21-8-7 road record and are sitting 2nd in the Central Division. They are coming off a 2-1 road loss to the Islanders, and their previous three games were a 6-4 home loss to the Devils, a 3-2 home loss to the Golden Knights, and a 2-1 road overtime loss to the Wild.

Offensively, the Stars are averaging 3.33 goals per game and are scoring 28.8% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.69 goals per game and are killing 81.2% of their opponent’s power plays.

Jason Robertson leads the Stars with 85 points and 39 goals, while Miro Heiskanen leads the team in assists with 50. Jake Oettinger is the starting goalie for the Stars, and he has a 29-11-6 record, with 2.62 GAA and .901 SV%. Casey DeSmith is the backup goalie and he has a 14-7-5 record, with 2.40 GAA and .908 SV%.

Dallas Stars @ Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Trends: March 28, 2026

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The Penguins have won each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a road win.
• The Stars have lost each of their last five games as favorites.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last 10 night games following a road win.
• The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in 14 of their last 15 games as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The Penguins have won the second period in eight of their last nine games against Western Conference opponents when tied after the first period.

Why the Dallas Stars will win

• The Penguins have lost each of their last five games following a shootout win.
• The Stars have won five of their last six games against the Penguins.
• The Penguins have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 10 Saturday home games.
• The road team has covered the puck line in each of the Penguins’ last seven games.
• The Penguins have lost the second period in each of their last six night games at PPG Paints Arena when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Penguins’ last eight night games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Stars’ last four road games following a road loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Penguins’ last seven games against Central Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Stars’ last three games following a road loss.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Tommy Novak has scored a goal in each of his last five appearances against the Stars.
• Evgeni Malkin has recorded an assist in each of his last five appearances with the Penguins as underdogs against Central Division opponents.
• Bryan Rust has recorded five blocks against the Stars this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts

• Mikko Rantanen has scored a goal in three of his last four road appearances against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Mikko Rantanen has recorded an assist in each of his last five appearances.
• Wyatt Johnston ranks 1st in the league for Power Play Goals (24) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.63%).
• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.39).
• The Dallas Stars rank 2nd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.69).
• The Dallas Stars rank 2nd in the league in power play percentage this season (28.77%).

Stars vs Penguins Prediction

The Stars won their previous meeting against the Penguins this season by 3-2 at home in a shootout and are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Stars vs Penguins Prediction, the Stars are coming as -123 road favorites. The Stars have been playing perhaps their worst hockey of the season lately, as they are 1-5 in their last 6 games, having scored two goals or less in four of their last five games. The Penguins are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and are in a tougher spot, as they might be pushed out of the playoff places of the East. Their offense has been more consistent, as they average 3.9 goals in their last 10 games and I like them as home dogs in this spot. Take the Penguins on the moneyline for plus money.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins ML