Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction 3/31/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Canadiens vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Tuesday, March 31st at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens are 42-21-10 this season after they defeated the Hurricanes by a score of 3-1 in their last game. Montreal trailed 1-0 after the first period, but they scored three goals in the third to get a huge win. The Canadiens were out shot by a total of 35-18, won 45.8% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Montreal got goals from Caufield and Suzuki (2), while Dobes stopped 34 out of 35 shots, which was a .971 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Montreal defeated the Predators by a score of 4-1 and the Blue Jackets by a score of 2-1. The Canadiens have won five games in a row and they are currently third in the Atlantic standings with 94 points. Montreal has scored 3.51 goals per game and they have allowed 3.12 goals against per game, while also going 24.5% on the power play and 76.5% on the penalty kill this season. Nick Suzuki has led Montreal with 26 goals and 65 assists, while Lane Hutson has added 11 goals and 62 assists. The projected starting goalie for Montreal is Jakub Dobes, who is 25-8-4 with a 2.78 goals against average and a .900 save percentage this season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 46-21-6 this year after they defeated the Predators by a score of 3-2 in their last game. Tampa Bay blew a 2-1 lead in the third, but they answered two minutes later for the winning goal. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 31-28, won 46.2% of the face-offs, and went 0-4 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Guentzel, Hagel, and Perry, while Johansson stopped 29 out of 31 shots, which was a .935 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Senators by a score of 4-2, but lost to the Kraken by a score of 4-3 before that. The Lightning have won six of their last eight games and they are currently first in the Atlantic standings with 98 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.60 goals per game and they have allowed 2.75 goals against per game, while also going 22.5% on the power play and 82.3% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 40 goals and 81 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 35 goals and 45 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 35-12-4 with a 2.33 goals against average and a .913 save percentage this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won 15 of their last 17 games against the Canadiens at Benchmark International Arena.
• The Canadiens have lost six of their last seven games at Benchmark International Arena following a road win.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in four of their last five games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have lost the first period in each of their last four road games following a road win.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 18 games as road underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last three home games following a win.
• The Lightning have lost the first period in five of their last six games as favorites.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between the Canadiens and Lightning at Benchmark International Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Canadiens’ last five games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four night games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 10 games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last four games against opponents on a winning streak.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in seven of his last eight appearances with the Lightning as favorites against the Canadiens.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last 11 Tuesday games at Benchmark International Arena.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Cole Caufield has scored at least one goal in each of his last four appearances with the Canadiens as road underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last seven road games.
• Juraj Slafkovsky has scored the first goal in each of the Canadiens’ last three road games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction 

Montreal comes into this matchup on a five game winning streak and they are just four points out of first in the Atlantic. The Canadiens are 20-8-8 on the road this year, while the Lightning are 23-12-1 at home. Tampa Bay has won six of their last eight games and they have allowed two goals in each of their last two. This should be a very fun matchup to watch and with Montreal playing so well right now, I think it is worth taking the Canadiens at plus money. Take Montreal to win here.

David Racey's Pick: Canadiens ML