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Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 3/6/25 NHL Picks

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Tampa Bay Lightning (36-21-4) vs Buffalo Sabres (24-30-6)

March 6, 2025 at 07:00 PM EST

The Line: Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Lightning -230 / Buffalo Sabres +190 — Over/Under: 6.5

(Get latest betting odds)

The Buffalo Sabres and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Thursday in NHL action at the Amalie Arena. Here’s a Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction. This article will include a Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick.

Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview 

The Buffalo Sabres lost to the Sharks and Canadiens, and play the Panthers, Oilers, and Red Wings next. The Sabres have lost four straight games and have been outscored 7-19 during that streak. 

The Buffalo Sabres are averaging 3.15 goals per game and are scoring 16.8 percent of their power play opportunities. Tage Thompson leads Buffalo with 30 goals, Rasmus Dahlin has 39 assists and Alex Tuch has 145 shots on goal. Defensively, the Buffalo Sabres are allowing 3.45 goals per game and are killing 76.9 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Devon Levi has given up 33 goals on 258 shots faced, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has allowed 128 goals on 1,190 shots.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview 

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Panthers, beat the Blue Jackets, and they play the Bruins, Hurricanes, and Flyers next. The Lighting have won 10 of their last 12 games and haven’t lost a home game since February 1.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 3.56 goals per game and are scoring on 26.3 percent of their power play opportunities. Brayden Point leads Tampa Bay with 32 goals, Nikita Kucherov has 62 assists and Brandon Hagel has 177 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 2.61 goals per game and are killing 81.1 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 103 goals on 1,334 shots faced, and Jonas Johansson has given up 42 goals on 401 shots.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

  • The Lightning have won each of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Sabres have lost 10 of their last 11 games following a home loss.
  • The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last eight games as favorites.
  • The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five road games following a home loss.
  • The Sabres have lost the third period in each of their last five games as road underdogs when tied after the second period.

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

  • The Sabres have won each of their last three games as road underdogs against the Lightning.
  • The road team has covered the puck line in each of the last four games between the Sabres and Lightning.
  • The Lightning have lost the third period in four of their last five games as favorites when trailing after the second period.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 5th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.61).
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of six teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
  • The Buffalo Sabres rank 1st in the league for Period 1 goals scored per game this season (1.13).
  • The Buffalo Sabres are one of only two teams to lose 10+ games when tied after Period 2 this season.

Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Injury Report 

The Tampa Bay Lightning don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

The Buffalo Sabres will be without Felix Sandstrom, while Jason Zucker is questionable.

Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

As I’ve said before, the Sabres are one of those teams that lets you down right when you start to believe. Well, the Sabres have lost four straight games and have looked bad doing it. The Lightning have been as hot as any team in the league over these last three weeks and they’re at home where they’re 22-7-2 on the season. The Sabres have won five of the last six games against the Lightning, so you can talk yourself into the plus money. I still don’t care. I’m going to side with the Lightning due to the form of both teams. Of course, I’ll lay the PL to shave down the price. 

Randy Chambers's Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5

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