Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 2/28/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Buffalo Sabres and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Saturday in NHL action from the Benchmark International Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.

Buffalo Sabres Recap

The Buffalo Sabres come into this game looking to add on to their 3-2 win over Florida from their last game to improve to 34-19-6 this season. After this game, Buffalo will head home for a game against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Sabres Win Back-To-Back Games

Going into Friday’s game, Tage Thompson leads the Sabres in scoring with 61 points coming on a team-high 31 goals and 30 assists while Alex Tuch has 48 points with 22 goals and 26 assists and Rasmus Dahlin has 48 points with a team-high 37 assists. Josh Doan has 39 points with 18 goals and 21 assists and Ryan McLeod has 41 points with 11 goals and 30 assists. Bowen Byram has 29 points with 10 goals and 19 assists while Jack Quinn’s added 37 points with 12 goals and 25 assists this season. Alex Lyon has gone 14-8-3 with a 2.72 GAA and a .913 save percentage in goal for Buffalo while Colten Ellis is 7-4-1 with a 3.11 GAA and an .896 save percentage so far this season. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has gone 12-7-2 with a 2.65 GAA and a .903 save percentage up to this point in the year.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to shake off a 5-4 loss to Carolina last time out to sit at 38-15-4 this season. After this game, Tampa Bay will head on the road for a game against Minnesota.

Lightning Have Six-Game Win Streak Snapped

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 95 points including 31 goals and 64 assists while Brandon Hagel has 55 points with 28 goals and 27 assists and Jake Guentzel has 63 points with 26 goals and 37 assists. Anthony Cirelli has 35 points with 15 goals and 20 assists. Darren Raddysh has also added 53 points with 17 goals and 36 assists as well on the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 28-7-3 with a 2.11 GAA and a .921 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 10-8-1 with a 3.03 GAA and an .888 save percentage this season. 

Buffalo Sabres @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: February 28, 2026

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last 11 home games.
• The Sabres have lost each of their last nine games on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in six of their last seven games at Benchmark International Arena.
• Sabres has failed to cover the puck line in six of its last seven road matches when playing with a rest disadvantage against Lightning.
• The Lightning have won the second period in seven of their last eight games as home favorites.

Why the Buffalo Sabres will win

• The Sabres have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as home favorites following a road loss.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in each of their last 13 games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in eight of their last 10 home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Sabres have won the third period in five of their last six games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.

Total Goals Facts

• Fourteen of the Lightning’s last 16 night games against Atlantic Division opponents at Benchmark International Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Eleven of the Sabres’ last 13 games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the last three games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Sabres and Lightning at Benchmark International Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Jake Guentzel has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning’s last four home games against opponents who are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• Brayden Point has recorded at least one assist in each of his last five appearances against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for multi-point games (32) this season.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Peyton Krebs has scored a goal in three of the Sabres’ last four road games.
• Ryan McLeod has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Mattias Samuelsson has scored two goals against the Lightning this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.56).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.54).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 7th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.50%).
• The Buffalo Sabres have recorded the equal-longest road winning streak (7 games) in the NHL this season.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

I’m on the Sabres +1.5 here. I just think the Sabres can be competitive in this game and I’m also considering a ML play here as this is a hefty price to give up to Tampa Bay. Sure. Buffalo’s on a back-to-back after a tight one against Florida last time out, but the Sabres aren’t the Sabres of old and I think this line is kind of treating Buffalo like the Sabres of recent memory. I think the Lightning could win this one but if they do I think it’s a close one. Give me the Sabres +1.5.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Buffalo +1.5