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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Carolina Hurricanes Prediction 3/11/25 NHL Picks
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Carolina Hurricanes (38-22-4) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (37-22-4)
March 11, 2025 at 07:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Carolina Hurricanes -125 / Tampa Bay Lightning +105 — Over/Under: 5.5
In this article, we will formulate a Lightning vs Hurricanes prediction for this NHL game on Tuesday, March 11 at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (37-22-4, 34-29 ATS) were on their longest winning streak of the year as they recorded eight wins from early February to March 1. Furthermore, the Lightning didn’t allow more than three goals in any of those eight victories, but they did lose two of the previous four games. Tampa Bay lost to the Panthers, beat the Blue Jackets and Buffalo, and lost the most recent game to the Boston Bruins 4-0 at home. The Lightning are 3rd in the Atlantic Division Standings with 78 points, three behind the Maple Leafs and five behind the top-placed Panthers.
The Lightning score 3.54 goals per game on average (2nd), while they concede 2.67 GPG (6th). This season, Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 92 points (28 G and 64 A). Brandon Hagel has 70 points (30 G and 40 A), while Brayden Point chips in with 65 points (32 G and 33 A).
Andrei Vasilevskiy (30-17-3) is expected to start for the Lightning at the goal on Tuesday against the Hurricanes. The 30-year-old is allowing 2.24 goals per game this year with a .921 SV% and four shutouts.
Carolina Hurricanes Betting Preview
The Carolina Hurricanes (38-22-4, 28-36 ATS) responded to a 3-1 home loss to the Oilers with four consecutive wins. The Canes allowed no more than two goals in those four wins as they defeated the Flames, Red Wings, Bruins, and Jets. Carolina is currently on a four-game home stand and will close it out with a tilt against Detroit on Friday. The Hurricanes are 2nd in the Metropolitan Division Standings with 80 points, six more than the Devils and 12 behind the leaders Capitals.
The Hurricanes average 3.19 goals per game this year (11th), while they allow 2.70 GPG (8th). Sebastian Aho leads the team with 61 points (24 G and 37 A). Seth Jarvis contributes 48 points (25 G and 23 A), while Andrei Svechnikov has 43 points (18 G and 25 A).
Frederik Andersen (8-5-0) will likely take his place in the cage for the Hurricanes on Tuesday against the Lightning. The 35-year-old is allowing 2.17 goals per game this year with a .911 SV% and one shutout.
Why the Lightning will beat the Hurricanes
- The Lightning have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Hurricanes.
- The Hurricanes have lost 11 of their last 16 games as favorites following a home win.
- The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last seven night games at Lenovo Center.
- The Hurricanes have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games following a home win.
- The Hurricanes have lost the third period in four of their last five games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents at Lenovo Center when trailing after the second period.
Why the Hurricanes will beat the Lightning
- The Hurricanes have won each of their last eight games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Hurricanes have covered the puck line in six of their last eight games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Lightning have lost the second period in five of their last six games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents when tied after the first period.
Total Goals Facts
- Each of the Lightning’s last four games as underdogs following a loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Each of the Hurricanes’ last six Tuesday games has gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in seven of the Hurricanes’ last eight home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine Tuesday night games.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Carolina Hurricanes rank 25th in the league in power play percentage this season (18.65%).
- The Carolina Hurricanes rank 1st in the league for shots against per game this season (25.0).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 6th in the league in power play percentage this season (26.11%).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of six teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
Lightning vs Hurricanes Prediction
The Lightning won six of the previous ten H2H encounters and five of the last six. These teams have already met on two occasions this season, and the Bolts won both duels. Both of those games produced five goals in total, and I think we will not see more than five on Tuesday as well. Only three of the last ten H2Hs went Over, which is one of the reasons I am going with Under here. Both Tampa and Carolina have top-10 defenses, which performed very well in recent weeks.
