Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction 10/5/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Washington Commanders and the Los Angeles Chargers meet in week 5 NFL action from SoFi Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers prediction.

Washington Commanders Recap

The Washington Commanders come into this game looking to rebound from their 34-27 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons last time out to drop to 2-2 this season. After this game, the Commanders will head home for a game against the Chicago Bears.

Commanders Alternate Wins & Losses To Start Season

Jayden Daniels has thrown for 433 yards and 3 touchdowns on 59.7% passing while Marcus Mariota has thrown for 363 yards, 3 touchdowns and an INT on 64.6% passing. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has a team-high 172 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns for the Commanders on the ground while Jeremy McNichols has added 106 rushing yards and a TD. Deebo Samuel leads Washington’s receivers with 22 grabs for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns while Terry McLaurin has 149 receiving yards and Zach Ertz has 14 catches for 149 yards of his own as well as 2 TDs. On defense, Bobby Wagner has a team-high 42 total tackles in addition to 18 solo tackles and a pair of sacks while Dorance Armstrong has a team-high 3 sacks. As a unit, Washington’s group has combined for 10 sacks and an interception so far this season.

Los Angeles Chargers Recap

The Los Angeles Chargers come into this game looking to bounce back from a 21-18 loss at the hands of the New York Giants in their last game to sit at 3-1 this season. After this game, the Chargers will head on the road for a game against the Miami Dolphins.

Chargers Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Justin Herbert has thrown for 1,063 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 63.8% passing while Omarion Hampton leads Los Angeles in rushing with 270 rushing yards and 2 TDs this season. Quentin Johnston has 337 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns to lead the Chargers’ group while Keenan Allen has 24 catches for 231 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns and Ladd McConkey’s added 16 catches and 174 receiving yards as well. On defense, Derwin James Jr. has a team-high 34 total tackles including 22 solo tackles while Daiyan Henley has a pair of sacks and an interception. Tuli Tuipulotu has a team-high 4 sacks while the Chargers’ defensive unit as a whole has combined for 13 sacks and 3 interceptions so far this season. 

Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Los Angeles Chargers will win

• The Commanders have lost each of their last seven October games against AFC West opponents.
• The home team has won each of the Commanders’ last five games.
• The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Chargers’ last nine games at SoFi Stadium.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight October games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Commanders have lost the first half in each of their last seven road games following a road loss.
• The home team has won the first quarter in each of the Commanders’ last eight games.
• The Chargers have scored the first touchdown in six of their last eight games against NFC East opponents.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Chargers have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Commanders have won each of their last two games as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against AFC opponents.
• The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The underdogs have won the first half in each of the Chargers’ last four Week 5 games.
• The Commanders have won the first quarter in each of their last six games following a loss.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games following a loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Commanders’ last eight games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Chargers’ last four home games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last three Sunday games at SoFi Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Facts

• Justin Herbert has recorded 279+ passing yards in each of the Chargers’ last four October games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Justin Herbert has recorded 24+ rushing yards in four of the Chargers’ last five regular season games.
• Quentin Johnston has recorded 69+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Chargers’ last five regular season games.
• Quentin Johnston has recorded 71+ receiving yards in each of the Chargers’ last five regular season games.
• Quentin Johnston has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last three appearances with the Chargers as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Justin Herbert has recorded 27+ completions in three of the Chargers’ last four October games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 5, Quentin Johnston ranks T1st in the NFL in 20+ yard receiving touchdowns (3) this season.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Luke McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in each of the Commanders’ last two games.
• Heading into Week 5, Jacory Croskey-Merritt ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (5.9) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Chargers – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Heading into Week 5, the Chargers rank T1st in the NFL in Q1 win percentage (75.0) this season.
• Commanders – four different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Commanders – three different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

I’m on the Chargers here. I get the case to be made for Washington catching points here, especially if Jayden Daniels is good to go. However, the Commanders have not been the same team on the road that they’ve been at home and we’ve seen the Commanders really struggle against another solid defense in Green Bay. The Chargers had a dud against the Giants, but I think they can bounce back and get a win and cover at home in this one. Give me the Chargers.