Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 10/27/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction for this NFL Week 8 game on Monday, October 27th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs have a 4-3 record this season and are sitting second in the AFC West. They are 4-3 ATS, 3-4 in Over/Under and have a 3-1 home record and a 1-2 away record. The Chiefs are coming off a 31-0 home win against the Las Vegas Raiders and will face the Bills, Broncos and Colts next.

Offensively, the Chiefs average 26.6 points per game, ranking 7th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 17.7 points per game, which is 3rd. Kansas City averages 370.6 total yards per game (247.1 passing and 123.4 rushing), while allowing 280.3 total yards per game (105.7 rushing and 174.6 passing).

Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs with 1800 passing yards with 66.1% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. Isiah Pacheco leads the team in rushing yards with 271, while Travis Kelce has a team-high 31 receptions for 375 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Defensively, Nick Bolton has a team-high 55 total tackles (29 of them solo), while George Karlaftis III leads the team in sacks, with 3.5, while Trent McDuffie, Leo Chenal, Jaylen Watson and Christian Roland-Wallace each have one interception.

Washington Commanders Preview

The Washington Commanders have a 3-4 record this season and are sitting third in the NFC East. They are 3-4 ATS, 3-4 in Over/Under and have a 2-1 home record and a 1-3 away record. The Commanders are coming off a 22-44 road loss against the Dallas Cowboys and will face the Seahawks, Lions and Dolphins next.

Offensively, the Commanders average 25.7 points per game, ranking 10th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 24.3 points per game, which is 21st. Washington averages 345.0 total yards per game (196.1 passing and 148.9 rushing), while allowing 364.3 total yards per game (126.0 rushing and 238.3 passing).

Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders with 1031 passing yards with 61.0% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the team in rushing yards with 377, while Deebo Samuel has a team-high 34 receptions for 315 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Defensively, Bobby Wagner has a team-high 73 total tackles (33 of them solo), while Dorance Armstrong Jr. leads the team in sacks, with 5.5, while Mike Sainristil has two interceptions.

Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends: Week 8

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 home games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
• The Commanders have lost each of their last six road games against AFC West opponents on a winning streak.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last eight October games against NFC opponents.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a Division loss.
• The Commanders have lost the first quarter in each of their last eight road games.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games as home favorites.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last 11 games as home favorites against NFC opponents.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Commanders have won each of their last four Monday games as underdogs.
• The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games against NFC East opponents.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games following a Division game.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Monday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games following a road loss.
• The road team has won the first half in five of the last six games between the Commanders and Chiefs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last six home games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of the Commanders’ last nine games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Three of the last four Monday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 257+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last nine October home games.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 10 previous regular season appearances with the Chiefs as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Marquise Brown has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six October home appearances.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 33+ rushing yards in each of his nine previous Monday appearances.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 43+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 14 home games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last seven Monday games.
• Heading into Week 8, Tyquan Thornton ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (22.2) this season.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Deebo Samuel has recorded 71+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last three October appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Deebo Samuel has scored the last touchdown in each of his last three road appearances.
• Deebo Samuel has scored a touchdown in each of his last four road appearances.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 13+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances following a loss.
• Terry McLaurin has recorded 53+ receiving yards in each of his last seven October appearances.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 21+ completions in nine of his last 11 appearances with the Commanders as underdogs.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has four rushing touchdowns through his first five career games – most by any player since De’Von Achane, (2024).

Matchup/League Facts

• Chiefs – only team with 3+ players to record 200+ rushing yards this season (Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt), heading into Week 8.
• Heading into Week 8, the Chiefs have scored three or more touchdowns in four consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the league.
• Commanders – four different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.
• Commanders – three different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.

Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction

In their previous meeting in 2021, the Chiefs won 31-13 on the road, and have won all of their four meetings against the Commanders, including their only meeting in Kansas City. 

In this Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction, the Chiefs are coming as -10-point home favorites, with the total set at 48.5 points. Both teams are coming into this matchup in opposite trajectories, as the Chiefs are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing their first two games of the season, and the Commanders are 1-3 in their last 4. The Chiefs have also won and covered the spread in their last three home games, and have been dominating the Commanders historically. Powered by the third-best defense in the NFL, I expect the Chiefs to win this one comfortably and cover the -10 spread.