Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 11/16/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in NFL action from Highmark Stadium. Here’s a Buccaneers vs Bills prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Buccaneers vs Bills pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

The Buccaneers were able to take wins in each of their first three games this year, dispatching the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans and New York Jets in that time. Tampa Bay lost to the Eagles in the next game, then took out the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints (with a loss to the Lions) in the next four games. In the win over the Saints, the Bucs held New Orleans to just three points with 3.9 yards per play, 48 rush yards and four takeaways. Tampa’s offense gained just 212 yards and 3.8 yards per play on the other side.

In their latest outing Sunday versus the New England Patriots, the Bucs scored points in every quarter—and also gave up points in every quarter—during a 28-23 defeat. QB Baker Mayfield logged 273 yards and three scores on 28-of-43 passing. Sean Tucker had nine carries for 53 yards as the team’s leading rusher, and Emeka Egbuka caught six balls for 115 yards and a touchdown. Tez Johnson added the other two TDs on four catches for 42 yards.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

Over on the Bills’ side, they were able to hit the ground running this year with wins over the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins and Saints in their first four. Buffalo would then lose to the Patriots and Falcons in consecutive games before another win over the Carolina Panthers. Buffalo followed that up with a tight seven-point home win over the Kansas City Chiefs on November 2. In that one the bills posted 404 yards with 23 first downs and a 7-of-12 success rate on third downs. The defense held the Chiefs to just 3-of-13 on third downs on the other side in the win.

Matched up against the Miami Dolphins last weekend, Buffalo had a rough game. Trailing 16-0 heading into the final frame, Buffalo couldn’t catch up and finished off a 30-13 defeat on the road in the end. QB Josh Allen logged 306 yards with two scores and a pick on 28-of-40 passing, and James Cook had 53 yards on 13 carries. Khalil Shakir had 58 yards on seven catches in the loss, while Keon Coleman had three catches for 46 yards and a TD.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won each of their last eight home games following a Division game.
• The Buccaneers have lost 12 of their last 13 November games as underdogs.
• The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games at Highmark Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
• The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games against AFC East opponents.
• The Bills have won the first quarter in each of their last two Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Buccaneers have lost the first half in each of their last four Week 11 games as underdogs.

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win

• The Buccaneers have won each of their last three Sunday games as road underdogs.
• The Bills have lost three of their last four games played as favorites on the East Coast.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last seven games following a loss.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games played as favorites on the East Coast.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Bills’ last two games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Buccaneers’ last four games as road underdogs following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the Bills’ last six Week 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Bills’ last eight games as home favorites.
• Dawson Knox has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances with the Bills as favorites following a loss.
• James Cook has recorded 99+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances following a loss.
• Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last six November games against NFC opponents.
• James Cook has recorded 87+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last four games against NFC opponents.
• James Cook has scored two touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four games as favorites against teams that held a winning record.
• Josh Allen has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Bills’ last six November games against NFC opponents.
• Maxwell Hairston has two interceptions through his first five career games – most by any player since Tariq Woolen, (2022).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

• Cade Otton has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last four road games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• Bucky Irving has recorded 84+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight regular season appearances.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 256+ passing yards in four of the Buccaneers’ last five Sunday games.
• Bucky Irving has recorded 44+ rushing yards in 14 of his last 16 Sunday appearances.
• Rachaad White has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Buccaneers’ last four games as underdogs following a loss.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 23+ completions in five of the Buccaneers’ last six games following a home loss.
• Heading into Week 11, Chase McLaughlin ranks 1st in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 11, the Bills have recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10 points or less this season (3).
• Heading into Week 11, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in average point differential in third quarters this season (+4.2).
• Heading into Week 11, the Buccaneers rank T2nd in the NFL in turnover differential (+8) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Buccaneers rank 2nd in the NFL in Q3 points per game (7.6) this season.

Buccaneers vs Bills Prediction

I’ll stick with the Bills. Buffalo needs a good bounce-back effort here after coming up short versus the rival Dolphins last weekend, though. The Bills weren’t themselves in that one, gaining 376 yards on offense with 20 first downs, 5-of-15 on third-down tries and three turnovers. The defense held Miami to just 3-of-9 on third downs and got two picks but also gave up 197 rush yards and 7.0 yards per play. The Bills have been below 15 points in two of the last four games, losing both.

As for Tampa Bay, they posted 371 yards with 5.6 yards per play, 24 first downs and 5-of-13 on third downs in their loss to the Patriots. The Bucs defense gave up 435 yards on the other side but did pretty well on third downs with 5-of-14 on those. This road matchup will be quite tough, though.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5