Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 9/7/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction for this NFL Week 1 game on Sunday, September 7th at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Atlanta Falcons Preview

Atlanta finished the preseason with a 0-3 record. They lost at home by Detroit with a 10-17 score, by Tennessee 20-23 and on the road by Dallas 13-31.

Offensively, Atlanta finished the preseason averaging 14.3 points per game, while allowing 23.7 points per game defensively. The Falcons averaged 94.7 rushing yards and 181.3 passing yards per game. They allowed 113.3 rushing yards per game and 168.0 passing yards per game.

Easton Stick led the Falcons in the preseason with 54/78 completed passes and 520 total passing yards. He also had 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Emory Jones had 6/10 passes for 65 passing yards, while Ben DiNucci added 0/2 passes for 0 yards and 1 interception. Nathan Carter led the team in rushing yards, with 85 and 1 touchdown, while Chris Blair had a team-high 8 caught passes for 197 receiving yards, and had 1 touchdown.

Defensively, Ronnie Harrison Jr. had a team-high 12 total tackles, while Markees Watts had a team-high 1.5 total sacks, and Natrone Brooks had a team-high 1 interception.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

Tampa Bay finished the preseason with a 2-1 record. They won Tennessee at home 29-7, Pittsburgh on the road by 17-14, and lost their final game by Buffalo at home, 19-23.

Offensively, Tampa Bay finished the preseason averaging 21.7 points per game, while allowing 14.7 points per game defensively. The Buccaneers averaged 88.0 rushing yards and 188.3 passing yards per game. They allowed 100.3 rushing yards per game and 197.0 passing yards per game.

Connor Bazelak led the Buccaneers in the preseason with 32/46 completed passes and 261 total passing yards. He also had 1 touchdown. Kyle Trask had 28/43 passes for 241 passing yards and 1 touchdown, while Teddy Bridgewater added 6/11 passes for 85 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. Owen Wright led the team in rushing yards, with 100 and 1 touchdown, while Ryan Miller had a team-high 8 caught passes for 95 receiving yards. Deven Thompkins caught 6 passes for 82 yards.

Defensively, Nick Jackson had a team-high 15 total tackles, while Markees Watts had a team-high 1.5 total sacks, and Kindle Vildor had a team-high 1 interception.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Falcons have won each of their last two games as home underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Buccaneers have lost three of their last four games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• The Falcons have covered the spread in five of their last six games against the Buccaneers.
• The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games as home underdogs.
• The Falcons have won the first half in each of their last four games.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in five of their last six games as home underdogs.

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win

• The Buccaneers have won seven of their last eight September games against NFC South opponents.
• The Falcons have lost each of their last six Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight September games against NFC South opponents.
• The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six road games.
• The Buccaneers have won the first half in each of their last five season openers as favorites.
• The Buccaneers have won the first quarter in each of their last four Week 1 road games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Falcons’ last six games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Buccaneers’ last six games against NFC South opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eleven of the last 12 games between NFC South teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Falcons – two different players recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• The Falcons ranked 32nd in the NFL in Q4 points per game (4.1) last season.
• Buccaneers – three different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Buccaneers – three different players recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction

The Falcons won both meetings against the Bucs last season. At home by 36-30 in OT, and in Tampa by 31-26. They have won their last three meetings in Atlanta, and are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 meetings. Their last three meetings have gone over the total.

In this Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction, the Buccaneers are coming as -2.5-point road favorites. The Bucs were profitable away from home last season, with a 5-3 record and against the spread. Tampa Bay won 3 of 4 games as a road favorite with the only loss coming at Dallas in Week 16. They are playing with double revenge in their minds, after losing twice to the Falcons in 2024. The Falcons were 3-6 against the spread at home and they looked terrible in the postseason. Their only player who dominated Tampa Bay in their two wins last season won’t be suiting up, as Kirk Cousins has been replaced by last season’s 7th overall draft pick, Michael Penix Jr. I expect the guests to open their season with a road victory. Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lay the points in this one.