Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets Prediction 9/7/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Jets meet in week 1 NFL action from MetLife Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Steelers vs.  New York Jets prediction.

Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers come into the 2025 campaign after a 10-7 season in 2024 that earned a wild-card berth but ended with a 28-14 playoff loss at the hands of Baltimore. In a dramatic offseason, Pittsburgh parted with both of its quarterbacks from 2024 – Russell Wilson, who signed with the New York Giants, and Justin Fields, who joined the New York Jets – and brought in 41-year-old four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers on a one-year deal. Leading rusher Najee Harris also departed, joining the Chargers, leaving an opportunity for Jaylen Warren and rookie third-round pick Kaleb Johnson to carry the ground game. The Steelers overhauled their receiving corps, trading away wideout George Pickens to Dallas but acquiring Pro Bowl receiver D.K. Metcalf from Seattle as a new number-one target, and adding veteran receiver Robert Woods along with tight end Jonnu Smith via trade from Miami. Up front, the offensive line returns intact, anchored by All-Pro guard Isaac Seumalo and newly extended left tackle Dan Moore Jr. Defensively, Pittsburgh made a blockbuster move by sending All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to Miami in exchange for star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and signed former Eagles standout Darius Slay to bolster the secondary. The front seven remains a strength, spearheaded by elite pass rusher T.J. Watt and veteran lineman Cameron Heyward, with linebacker Patrick Queen coming off a Pro Bowl season. First-round draft pick Derrick Harmon adds youth to the defense as Pittsburgh aims to finally break its postseason victory drought under long-time coach Mike Tomlin, now in his 19th season.

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

• Jonnu Smith’s team has won seven of its last eight games with him playing against Quincy Williams.
• The Jets have lost each of their last five games before a Division game.
• The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last six Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games before a Division game.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

• Jonnu Smith has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances against AFC opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 233+ passing yards in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC East opponents.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 21+ completions in each of his last eight appearances at MetLife Stadium.
• Jonnu Smith has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 44+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 18+ rushing yards in four of his five previous September appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Chris Boswell ranked 1st in the NFL in made field goals (41) last season.

New York Jets Recap

The New York Jets enter 2025 after a 5-12 season that extended their playoff drought and triggered sweeping changes. The team released Aaron Rodgers after two years, saw midseason trade addition Davante Adams depart for the Rams, and lost veteran linebacker C.J. Mosley to retirement. To reset the offense, New York signed former Bears quarterback Justin Fields and added several veteran free agents. In the draft, the Jets used the seventh overall pick on Missouri offensive tackle Armand Membou to solidify the line and selected LSU tight end Mason Taylor in the second round to give the passing game another weapon. Leadership also shifted, with former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn hired as head coach and Tanner Engstrand brought in as offensive coordinator. With a new quarterback, revamped roster, and overhauled staff, the Jets aim to turn the page on last year’s struggles and chart a new course entering 2025 and ironically to start that new chapter, they face a familiar foe.

Why the New York Jets will win

• The Steelers have lost each of their last four games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
• The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Steelers and Jets.
• The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
• The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five games between the Steelers and Jets.

New York Jets Player Prop Facts

• Justin Fields has scored a touchdown in four of his last five home appearances against conference opponents.
• Breece Hall has recorded 52+ rushing yards in each of the Jets’ last six home games.
• Breece Hall has recorded 72+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Jets’ last four home games against AFC opponents.
• Allen Lazard has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his last eight September appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Jamien Sherwood recorded the most solo tackles in a single game last season (13 vs Dolphins, Week 14).

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Jets’ last seven home openers against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Steelers’ last six season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of the last four Sunday games at MetLife Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs.  New York Jets Prediction

I’m rolling with the Steelers here. I know that father time is undefeated and Aaron Rodgers could have some issues against a decent Jets pass rush, but Justin Fields also has a tendency to be erratic when under pressure, and we know the defensive intensity that a Mike Tomlin coached defense can bring and I think it makes Fields uncomfortable and leads to mistakes that cost the Jets the game in this one. Give me Pittsburgh here.