Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Prediction 9/21/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action from Gillette Stadium. Here’s a Steelers vs Patriots prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Steelers vs Patriots pick. We will examine:

The Pittsburgh Steelers recent form and player performance

The New England Patriots recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Steelers

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New England Patriots

Recent betting trends in games played between the Steelers and Patriots

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Steelers vs Patriots game

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Steelers opened up their season versus the struggling Jets back on September 7. Pittsburgh had a nine-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter, then surged on a 17-6 run on the way to a 34-32 win. QB Aaron Rodgers finished with 244 yards and four touchdowns on 22-of-30 passing. Jaylen Warren logged 11 carries for 37 yards, and DK Metcalf had four catches for 83 yards to top the receivers.

Back on Sunday in game two versus the Seattle Seahawks, the Steelers had a 14-14 tie going into the fourth quarter. After finishing on the wrong end of a 17-3 run, Pittsburgh had a 31-17 loss. Rodgers had an 18-of-33 line for 203 yards, one TD and two picks this time. Warren again led the rush with 14 totes for 48 yards while also topping the receivers on four catches for 86 yards.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

Over on the New England side, they kicked things off this season versus the Las Vegas Raiders. The Pats were up 10-7 by halftime but could only muster a fourth-quarter field goal from there in a 20-13 loss. Drake Maye threw 30-of-46 for 287 yards, one TD and one interception. Leading the rushers was TreVeyon Henderson with five carries for 27 yards. Kayshon Boutte topped the receivers with six grabs for 103 yards.

Over the weekend in game two versus the rival Miami Dolphins, New England was able to post their first win on the road. The Patriots turned a slim 15-14 halftime edge into a 33-27 victory. maye was 19-of-23 for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns while also notching a rush score. Rhamondre Stevenson carried 11 times for 54 yards, and also led the receivers on five catches for 88 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the New England Patriots will win
 
 
The Steelers have lost each of their last three Week 3 games as road favorites.
The Patriots have won eight of their last nine games against the Steelers.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
The Patriots have covered the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
The Patriots have won the first half in nine of their last 10 home games against the Steelers.
The Patriots have won the first quarter in three of their last four games as underdogs.

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win
 
 
The Patriots have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a win.
T.J. Watt’s team has won five of its six previous games with him playing against Austin Hooper.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven September games at Gillette Stadium.
The road team has covered the spread in four of the Patriots’ last five games.
The favorites have won the first half in seven of the Steelers’ last eight games.
The road team has won the first quarter in four the Patriots’ last five Week 3 games.
Total Points Facts
 
 
Eight of the Patriots’ last nine games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Steelers’ last four games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
 
 
Drake Maye has recorded 238+ passing yards in three of the Patriots’ last four Sunday home games.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 39+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight Sunday appearances at Gillette Stadium.
Stefon Diggs has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a home underdog.
Austin Hooper has recorded 27+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last eight Sunday games as underdogs.
Stefon Diggs has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six appearances at Gillette Stadium.
Drake Maye has recorded 24+ completions in three of the Patriots’ last four Sunday home games.
Heading into Week 3, Antonio Gibson ranks 1st in the NFL in kick return yards (239) this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts
 
 
Pat Freiermuth has recorded 27+ receiving yards in each of the Steelers’ last seven September road games.
Jonnu Smith has scored at least one touchdown in eight of his last nine appearances against AFC opponents.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 235+ passing yards in each of his last seven Week 3 appearances.
Jonnu Smith has recorded 44+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last 10 appearances against AFC opponents.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 22+ completions in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
Heading into Week 3, Aaron Rodgers has recorded the longest passing touchdown in a single game this season (65 yards vs Seattle Seahawks, Week 2).

Matchup/League Facts
 
 
Patriots – two different players have recorded 2.0 sacks or more in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
Heading into Week 3, the Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (315.0) this season.
Steelers – two different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
Heading into Week 3, the Steelers rank 32nd in the NFL in average point differential in third quarters this season (-7.0).

Steelers vs Patriots Prediction

I’ll take a stab on the Patriots, but you could argue this one either way. New England is coming off a gritty, chippy game versus the rival Dolphins; the teams combined for a whopping 22 penalties on the day. The good news however, is that the Patriots came away with the win on 333 yards (211 passing), 6.1 yards per play and a solid 7-of-12 on third-down tries. Defensively New England gave up a lot through the air (297 yards) but buckled in when they needed to (4-of-10 on third downs). Week one was a defense-heavy slog; this time it was a messy shootout. Who knows what game three will bring.

As for the Steelers, they couldn’t recapture their week one success following the comeback win over the Jets. Pittsburgh only registered 13 first downs and went 5-of-15 on third-down conversions alongside two interceptions. They were in the game late, then fell apart during the 17-3 fourth quarter. The Steelers did have a couple interceptions though, and went a respectable 6-of-14 on Seattle’s third-down tries. This weekend if the Patriots can have Seattle’s type of offensive success—and avoid mistakes—I think New England will be in a good position down the stretch. This one’s a coin flip but I like the Pats a little better.