New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 9/29/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins meet in week 4 NFL action from Hard Rock Stadium on Monday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins prediction.

New York Jets Recap

The New York Jets come into this game looking to bounce back from a 29-27 loss at the hands of Tampa Bay last time out to sit at 0-3 this season. After this game, New York will head home for a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.

Jets Looking For First Win

Tyrod Taylor has thrown for 253 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception on 70.2% passing while Justin Field has thrown for 245 yards and a touchdown on 57.6% passing while also rushing for 97 yards and a pair of scores as well. Breece Hall has a team-high 157 rushing yards to lead the Jets on the ground while Garrett Wilson leads New York’s receiving room with 21 catches for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. On defense, Jamien Sherwood has a team-high 30 total tackles including 14 solo tackles while the Jets’ defense as a whole has combined for 6 sacks so far this season.

Miami Dolphins Recap

The Miami Dolphins come into this game looking to rebound from their 31-21 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills last time out to sit at 0-3 as well this season. After this game, the Dolphins will head on the road for a game against the Carolina Panthers.

Dolphins In Dire Need Of First Win

Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 575 yards, 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 69.7% passing while De’Von Achane has rushed for 147 yards as well this season. Tyreek Hill has a team-high 198 receiving yards coming on 15 catches while Achane has 18 receptions for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jaylen Waddle’s also added 14 catches for 137 yards and 2 scores as well this season. On defense, Tyrel Dodson leads the Dolphins with 33 total tackles including 23 solo tackles and a sack while Bradley Chubb has a team-high 3 sacks so far this season. As a unit, Miami’s defense has combined for 6 sacks so far this season.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Jets have lost each of their last 13 games against AFC East opponents on a losing streak.
• The Dolphins have won each of their last nine home games against the Jets.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites following a Division game.
• The Jets have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 September games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Jets have lost the first quarter in each of their last five Monday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Jets have lost the first half in each of their last six games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games as favorites.

Why the New York Jets will win

• The Dolphins have lost each of their last 10 Week 4 games.
• The underdogs have won four of the Jets’ last five Week 4 games.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 Week 4 games.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Jets’ last five Week 4 games.
• The Jets have won the first quarter in nine of their last 10 Week 4 games against AFC East opponents.
• The Dolphins have lost the first half in each of their last 10 Week 4 games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins’ last nine games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Jets’ last seven Week 4 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last six home games.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 55+ rushing yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four games.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 288+ passing yards in each of his last four appearances with the Dolphins as favorites.
• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine home appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Tyreek Hill has recorded 69+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with the Dolphins as favorites following a loss.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 26+ completions in each of his last five appearances with the Dolphins as favorites.
• Heading into Week 4, Jaelan Phillips ranks T1st in the NFL in quarterback hurries (5) this season.

New York Jets Player Prop Facts

• Garrett Wilson has scored a touchdown in each of the Jets’ last three road games.
• Allen Lazard has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his last seven September appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Justin Fields has recorded 17+ rushing yards in 17 of his last 19 appearances against division opponents.
• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 197+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances as a starter.
• Braelon Allen has recorded 26+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Jets’ last six road games.
• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last three appearances as a starter.
• Heading into Week 4, Garrett Wilson ranks T1st in the AFC for receptions (21) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in points allowed per game (32.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in average punt return (28.8 yards) this season.
• Jets – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Jets rank 1st in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (179.0) this season.

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction

I’m on the over in this one. Both teams still have a fair amount of skill pieces healthy coming into this game, and the problem on both sides has been defense as both teams have allowed at least 29 points in all of their games so far this season. I think this one has potential for some offensive fireworks mainly due to a large amount of incompetence on defense so give me the over here.