New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 1/4/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in NFL action from Highmark Stadium. Here’s a Jets vs Bills prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Jets vs Bills pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

New York Jets Betting Preview

The Jets won just one game before the bye, otherwise falling to the Steelers, Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Cowboys, Broncos and Panthers in that time. After the bye came a 2-5 run with losses to the Patriots, Ravens, Dolphins, Jaguars and Saints alongside wins over the Browns and Falcons. Through the first 15 games that would give the Jets a rough 3-12 record this year.

In their rematch with the Pats last weekend, the Jets were demolished 35-3 in the first half alone. new York posted a cosmetic touchdown in the fourth quarter during an ugly 42-10 loss. QB Brady Cook put up 152 yards with a pick on 19-of-33 passing and Breece Hall had 14 carries for 111 yards and a TD. John Metchie led the receivers on three catches for 41 yards.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

Over on the Bills’ side, they beat Baltimore, the Jets, Miami and New Orleans in their first four games this year. After the bye Buffalo took out the Panthers, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Steelers, Bengals, Patriots and Browns amid losses to the Dolphins and Texans over the next nine outings. That would give the Bills an 11-4 overall run over their first 15 games of the season.

Matched up against the Eagles last weekend, the Bills were down 13-0 leading into the fourth quarter and scored 12 unanswered points from there in a 13-12 loss. QB Josh Allen had 262 yards on 23-of-35 passing and James Cook led the rush on 20 carries for 74 yards.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Betting Trends: Week 18

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won each of their last 16 games at Highmark Stadium against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Jets have lost each of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Jets have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
• The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Jets.
• The Bills have won the first quarter in four of their last five games against the Jets.
• The Jets have lost the first half in each of their last 11 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).

Why the New York Jets will win

• The Bills have lost each of their last two games as favorites without Jordan Poyer.
• The road team has won each of the Bills’ last three games.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Jordan Poyer.
• The Jets have covered the spread in five of their last six games as underdogs without Brady Cook.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Jets’ last two Week 18 games.
• The road team has won the first half in three of the Bills’ last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Jets’ last 10 games without Jermaine Johnson have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the Bills’ last eight home games without Dawson Knox have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last three games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Josh Allen has recorded 40+ rushing yards in four of the Bills’ last five games as home favorites.
• James Cook has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last seven games as favorites against teams on a losing streak.
• Josh Allen has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four games at Highmark Stadium.
• Josh Allen has recorded 209+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last eight games at Highmark Stadium.
• Khalil Shakir has recorded 45+ receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last four games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 19+ completions in each of the Bills’ last eight January games as home favorites.
• Heading into Week 18, Josh Allen is the only player in the NFL to record 2,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards this season.

New York Jets Player Prop Facts

• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 21+ rushing yards in eight of his last 10 appearances with his team as an underdog following a loss.
• Tyler Johnson has scored a touchdown in each of his last two January appearances.
• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 197+ passing yards in four of his last five road appearances as a starter.
• Breece Hall has recorded 14+ receiving yards in four of the Jets’ last five road games against AFC opponents.
• Brady Cook has recorded 19+ completions in each of the Jets’ last three games as underdogs.
• Heading into Week 18, Kene Nwangwu is one of only six players in the NFL to have a kick return touchdown this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 18, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (163.4) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in time of possession against per game (27:10) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Jets rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards per game (145.8) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Jets rank 32nd in the NFL in interceptions (0) this season.

Jets vs Bills Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Bills. Buffalo has a good bounce-back opportunity against a bad team here following their rough one-point road loss to Philly. The Bills held the Eagles to just 190 total yards in that one along with 11 first downs and 3-of-13 on third-down tries. The offense put up 331 yards and 20 first downs with 6-of-16 on third downs on the other side but it wasn’t enough. The loss snaps a four-game win streak for the Bills but this weekend should be a very easy matchup.

In their last matchup way back on September 14, Buffalo took out the Jets 30-10 in a road win. The Bills posted 403 yards in that one with 224 rush yards and 25 first downs but could have done better with third-down conversions (5-of-14). Meanwhile New York limped to just 154 yards, 11 first downs and a miserable 0-of-11 on third-down tries themselves. I’m not jazzed about the Jets’ chances in this rematch.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Buffalo Bills -7