New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints Prediction 10/12/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Patriots vs Saints Prediction for this NFL Week 5 game on Sunday, October 12th at the Caesars Superdome. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

New Orleans Saints Preview

The New Orleans Saints have a 1-4 record this season and are sitting in fourth place of the NFC South. They are 2-3 ATS, 3-2 in Over/Under and have a 1-2 home record and 0-2 away record. The Saints are coming off a 26-14 home win over the New York Giants and are playing the Chicago Bears, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams next.

Offensively, the Saints average 18.4 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 27 points per game, which is 24th. New Orleans averages 307.2 total yards per game, with 116.8 rushing yards and 190.4 passing yards per game. They allow 326.2 total yards per game, with 122.2 rushing and 204 passing yards per game.

Spencer Rattler leads the Saints with 990 passing yards and 67.2% completed passes. Alvin Kamara leads the team in rushing yards, with 283, while Chris Olave has a team-high 33 receptions for 244 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Defensively, Demario Davis has a team-high 48 total tackles. Carl Granderson leads the Saints in sacks, with 4.5, while Kool-Aid McKinstry has two interceptions.

New England Patriots Preview

The New England Patriots have a 3-2 record this season and are sitting in second place of the AFC East. They are 3-2 ATS, 2-3 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 away record and 1-2 home record. The Patriots are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Buffalo Bills and are playing the Tennessee Titans, the Cleveland Browns and the Atlanta Falcons next.

Offensively, the Patriots average 25.0 points per game, which ranks 12th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 20.2 points per game, which is 9th. New England averages 336.6 total yards per game, with 95.2 rushing yards and 241.4 passing yards per game. They allow 327.8 total yards per game, with 85.6 rushing and 242.2 passing yards per game.

Drake Maye leads the Patriots with 1261 passing yards and 73.9% completed passes. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team in rushing yards, with 139, while Stefon Diggs has a team-high 29 receptions for 359 receiving yards. Defensively, Robert Spillane has a team-high 39 total tackles. Harold Landry leads the Patriots in sacks, with 3.5, while Jaylinn Hawkins, Robert Spillane, Marcus Jones and Marte Mapu have one interception.

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the New Orleans Saints will win

• The Patriots have lost each of their last seven games following a Division game.
• The Saints have won each of their last two games as underdogs against the Patriots.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Saints have covered the spread in four of their last five Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Saints have won the first half in each of their last eight Week 6 home games.
• The Saints have won the first quarter in each of their last three games as underdogs following a home win.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Saints have lost each of their last eight games against AFC opponents on a winning streak.
• The Patriots have won each of their last 13 October games as road favorites.
• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Saints’ last four games at Caesars Superdome.
• The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games against AFC East opponents.
• The Saints have lost the first quarter in eight of their last nine games.
• The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last eight Week 6 games against NFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Patriots’ last eight games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Saints’ last four Week 6 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts

• Rashid Shaheed has scored a touchdown in four of his last five appearances following a win.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 22+ receiving yards in 22 of his 23 previous appearances with the Saints as underdogs.
• Taysom Hill has recorded 17+ rushing yards in each of his six previous October appearances with the Saints as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 23+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his eight previous October appearances with the Saints as underdogs.
• Spencer Rattler has recorded 21+ completions in five of the Saints’ last six games.
• Heading into Week 6, Kool-Aid McKinstry has recorded the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (2 vs Giants, Week 5).

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Stefon Diggs has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six Week 6 appearances.
• Drake Maye has recorded 268+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last four games following a win.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six October appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC opponents.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of his last 12 appearances against NFC South opponents.
• Antonio Gibson has recorded 15+ rushing yards in each of his nine previous appearances against NFC South opponents.
• Drake Maye has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last five games following a win.
• Heading into Week 6, Antonio Gibson is the only player in the NFL to have a kick return touchdown this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 6, the Saints rank T1st in the NFL in fumbles recovered (5) this season.
• Heading into Week 6, the Saints rank 32nd in the NFL in Q1 opponent points per game (10.2) this season.
• Patriots – four different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 6.
• Patriots – four different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 6.

Patriots vs Saints Prediction

In their previous meeting in 2023, the Saints won 34-0 on the road. Both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last 4 meetings, and are 1-1 in their two meetings in New Orleans. Under is 3-2 in their 5 meetings.   

In this Patriots vs Saints Prediction, the Patriots are coming as -3.5-point road favorites, with the total set at 45.5 points. The Saints have been struggling this season, but they are coming off their first win, which was at home against the Giants. On the flip side, the Patriots are 3-1 in their last 4 games, and have won and covered both of their road games this season. New England is also better both offensively and defensively, winning by an average of 4.8 points, while New Orleans have been losing by an average of 8.6 points. Take the New England Patriots and lay the -3.5 on the road.