Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 9/18/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills meet Thursday in NFL action at Highmark Stadium. Here’s a Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction. This article will include a Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Pick.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins lost to the Colts and Patriots, and they play the Jets next. The Dolphins have lost 3 straight games. Tua Tagovailoa is completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 429 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane have combined for 261 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jaylen Waddle has 9 receptions.

The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 69.5 yards per contest, and De’Von Achane leads the way with 85 yards on 18 carries. Defensively, Miami is allowing 33 points and 375.5 yards per game. Jordyn Brooks leads the Miami Dolphins with 22 tackles, Bradley Chubb has 2 sacks and Rasul Douglas has 2 pass deflections.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills beat the Ravens and Jets, and they play the Saints next. The Bills have won 12 of their last 15 regular season games. Josh Allen is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 542 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Keon Coleman and Joshua Palmer have combined for 246 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Dalton Kincaid has 8 receptions.

The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 166 yards per contest, and James Cook leads the way with 176 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 25 points and 293 yards per game. Christian Benford leads the Buffalo Bills with 11 tackles, DaQuan Jones has 1 sack and Greg Rousseau has 2 pass deflections.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won each of their last 14 games at Highmark Stadium against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Dolphins have lost each of their last eight road games against AFC opponents on a winning streak.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites following a Division game.
• The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in five of their last six road games following a home loss.
• The Dolphins have lost the first half in eight of their last nine Thursday road games.

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Dolphins have won five of their six previous Week 3 games against the Bills.
• The Bills have lost seven of their last nine Week 3 games against AFC East opponents.
• The road team has covered the spread in five of the last six games between the Dolphins and Bills.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four home games against AFC East opponents.
• The Bills have lost the first half in three of their last four games following a road win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Bills’ last six home games against the Dolphins following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Dolphins’ last six September road games against AFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Josh Allen has recorded 35+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last four September games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
• Josh Palmer has recorded 38+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances against AFC opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 232+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last nine September games at Highmark Stadium.
• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last seven games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Curtis Samuel has recorded 22+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 10 September home appearances.
• Josh Allen has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Bills’ last six September games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 3, James Cook ranks T1st in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (3) this season.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Tyreek Hill has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances in road night games against teams with a winning record.
• Tyreek Hill has recorded 77+ receiving yards in seven of his eight previous September appearances with his team as a road underdog against AFC opponents.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 243+ passing yards in three of his last four road appearances against AFC East opponents.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 63+ rushing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last three games played as underdogs on the East Coast.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 120+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last three games as road underdogs against AFC East opponents.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 25+ completions in six of his last seven appearances against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 3, Jaelan Phillips ranks T2nd in the NFL in quarterback hurries (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bills – one different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Bills – one different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Dolphins – two different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Heading into Week 3, the Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in average punt return (46.5 yards) this season.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

The Dolphins’ offense started to figure things other late last week, which is a positive, but they’ve done nothing positive defensively through two games. Those issues came against Daniel Jones and Drake Maye, and no disrespect to them, but they’re not Josh Allen. Based off what we’ve seen so far, the Bills should be able to drop 70 points on these Dolphins. Straight crime scene stuff. Of course, the Bills have a history of spanking the Dolphins, which includes wins in 9 of the last 10 meetings, and there seems to be a wider gap now than in previous years.

Double-digit chalk on a short week can be risky, but I have zero confidence in the Dolphins from what I’ve seen through two weeks. The Bills are also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite. Still, the Dolphins are a mess right now. Give me the Bills in a beat down that likely leads to folks getting fired in South Florida. Stay tuned.