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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 11/2/2025 Today’s NFL Picks
Pick details
Kansas City (5-3) vs Buffalo (5-2)
November 2, 2025 at 04:25 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Buffalo +1.5 — Over/Under: +52.5
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in NFL action from Highmark Stadium. Here’s a Chiefs vs Bills prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Chiefs vs Bills pick. We will examine:
The Kansas City Chiefs recent form and player performance
The Buffalo Bills recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Chiefs
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Buffalo Bills
Recent betting trends in games played between the Chiefs and Bills
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Chiefs vs Bills game
This year the Chiefs opened up on a bit of a slide, falling in their first two outings versus the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles (the latter being a Super Bowl rematch at home). Kansas City got it going with four wins in their next five games, though. The lone loss was to the Jacksonville Jaguars; otherwise it was victories over the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions and Las Vegas Raiders. In the win over Vegas, the Chiefs gave up just 95 total yards on defense along with 3.2 yards per play, three first downs and 0-of-8 on third- and fourth-down opportunities. It was a great overall effort.
On Monday in their latest matchup versus the Commanders, KC had a modest first half and went into the locker room with a 7-7 tie. The Chiefs turned it on from there in a 21-0 run and took the victory in the end 28-7. QB Patrick Mahomes was 25-of-34 for 299 yards, three scores and two picks, with Isiah Pacheco adding 12 carries for 58 yards as the top rusher. Lead receiver Travis Kelce had six catches for 99 yards and a TD.
Over on the Bills’ side, they managed wins in each of the first four games versus the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints. A couple of losses came versus the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons in the next pair, though. In the October 13 loss to Atlanta, the Bills offense was only able to gain 291 yards with 5.4 yards per play, 17 first downs, 2-of-9 on third-down tries and two interceptions. The defense gave up 443 yards on the other side, including 210 rushing yards.
The Bills were able to right the proverbial ship in their latest outing last weekend versus the Carolina Panthers. In that road matchup Buffalo scored 16 points in the second and 21 more in the third on the way to a 40-9 blowout finish. QB Josh Allen was 12-of-19 for 163 yards and a TD while James Cook led the rush with 216 yards and a couple of scores on 19 totes. Khalil Shakir caught six balls for 88 yards and a touchdown as the top receiver on the team.
The Bills have won each of their last 16 home games following a road win.
The Chiefs have lost four of their five previous games at Highmark Stadium when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games at Highmark Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Sunday games at Highmark Stadium.
The Chiefs have lost the first half in each of their last eight November road games against AFC East opponents.
The Chiefs have won each of their last six Week 9 games against AFC opponents.
The Bills have lost 13 of their last 17 games against AFC West opponents on a winning streak.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Week 9 games.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
Total Points Facts
Seven of the Bills’ last eight games at Highmark Stadium following a road win have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Chiefs’ last five road games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in four of the Bills’ last five games against teams on a winning streak.
Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last 10 day games against teams on a winning streak.
Curtis Samuel has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his four previous home appearances against AFC West opponents.
Josh Palmer has recorded 30+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances against the Chiefs.
James Cook has recorded 87+ rushing yards in five of the Bills’ last six games.
Josh Allen has recorded 235+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last four November games against AFC opponents.
Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in seven of the Bills’ last eight games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Heading into Week 9, James Cook is the only player in the NFL to record 100+ rushing yards in three or more consecutive games this season.
Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing yards in each of his last seven Sunday regular season road appearances.
Patrick Mahomes has recorded 286+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last three games following a win.
Rashee Rice has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances.
Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 18 previous appearances with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Marquise Brown has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of his last 14 appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in eight of his last nine regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
Heading into Week 9, Kareem Hunt ranks 1st in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (62.0%) this season.
Heading into Week 9, the Bills rank 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt (43.4) this season.
Heading into Week 9, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in time of possession per game (33:15) this season.
Heading into Week 9, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 1st downs (189) this season.
Heading into Week 9, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (25.0%) this season.
I’ll lean toward Buffalo. The Bills got what they needed last weekend: a good performance on the road versus a middling Carolina team. The W should help restore some confidence. Buffalo’s offense walked away with 410 total yards, 245 rush yards, 6.8 yards per play and a solid 7-of-12 on third-down tries. The defense gave up 244 yards on the other side, 4.1 yards per play, 19 first downs and 4-of-11 on third-down conversions alongside three takeaways. The nine points surrendered was Buffalo’s lowest total of the season so far, and the 40 points scored were second only to 41 versus the Ravens in the season opener.
As for KC, they took a little while to get going versus the Commanders on Monday but everything worked out in the end—despite nine penalties and a couple of picks. The Chiefs should give Buffalo a great game Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs recent form and player performance
The Buffalo Bills recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Chiefs
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Buffalo Bills
Recent betting trends in games played between the Chiefs and Bills
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Chiefs vs Bills game
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
This year the Chiefs opened up on a bit of a slide, falling in their first two outings versus the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles (the latter being a Super Bowl rematch at home). Kansas City got it going with four wins in their next five games, though. The lone loss was to the Jacksonville Jaguars; otherwise it was victories over the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions and Las Vegas Raiders. In the win over Vegas, the Chiefs gave up just 95 total yards on defense along with 3.2 yards per play, three first downs and 0-of-8 on third- and fourth-down opportunities. It was a great overall effort.
On Monday in their latest matchup versus the Commanders, KC had a modest first half and went into the locker room with a 7-7 tie. The Chiefs turned it on from there in a 21-0 run and took the victory in the end 28-7. QB Patrick Mahomes was 25-of-34 for 299 yards, three scores and two picks, with Isiah Pacheco adding 12 carries for 58 yards as the top rusher. Lead receiver Travis Kelce had six catches for 99 yards and a TD.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Over on the Bills’ side, they managed wins in each of the first four games versus the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints. A couple of losses came versus the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons in the next pair, though. In the October 13 loss to Atlanta, the Bills offense was only able to gain 291 yards with 5.4 yards per play, 17 first downs, 2-of-9 on third-down tries and two interceptions. The defense gave up 443 yards on the other side, including 210 rushing yards.
The Bills were able to right the proverbial ship in their latest outing last weekend versus the Carolina Panthers. In that road matchup Buffalo scored 16 points in the second and 21 more in the third on the way to a 40-9 blowout finish. QB Josh Allen was 12-of-19 for 163 yards and a TD while James Cook led the rush with 216 yards and a couple of scores on 19 totes. Khalil Shakir caught six balls for 88 yards and a touchdown as the top receiver on the team.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Betting Trends: Week 9
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
The Bills have won each of their last 16 home games following a road win.
The Chiefs have lost four of their five previous games at Highmark Stadium when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games at Highmark Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Sunday games at Highmark Stadium.
The Chiefs have lost the first half in each of their last eight November road games against AFC East opponents.
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win
The Chiefs have won each of their last six Week 9 games against AFC opponents.
The Bills have lost 13 of their last 17 games against AFC West opponents on a winning streak.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Week 9 games.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
Total Points Facts
Seven of the Bills’ last eight games at Highmark Stadium following a road win have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Chiefs’ last five road games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in four of the Bills’ last five games against teams on a winning streak.
Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last 10 day games against teams on a winning streak.
Curtis Samuel has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his four previous home appearances against AFC West opponents.
Josh Palmer has recorded 30+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances against the Chiefs.
James Cook has recorded 87+ rushing yards in five of the Bills’ last six games.
Josh Allen has recorded 235+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last four November games against AFC opponents.
Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in seven of the Bills’ last eight games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Heading into Week 9, James Cook is the only player in the NFL to record 100+ rushing yards in three or more consecutive games this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing yards in each of his last seven Sunday regular season road appearances.
Patrick Mahomes has recorded 286+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last three games following a win.
Rashee Rice has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances.
Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 18 previous appearances with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Marquise Brown has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of his last 14 appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in eight of his last nine regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
Heading into Week 9, Kareem Hunt ranks 1st in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (62.0%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Heading into Week 9, the Bills rank 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt (43.4) this season.
Heading into Week 9, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in time of possession per game (33:15) this season.
Heading into Week 9, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 1st downs (189) this season.
Heading into Week 9, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (25.0%) this season.
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction
I’ll lean toward Buffalo. The Bills got what they needed last weekend: a good performance on the road versus a middling Carolina team. The W should help restore some confidence. Buffalo’s offense walked away with 410 total yards, 245 rush yards, 6.8 yards per play and a solid 7-of-12 on third-down tries. The defense gave up 244 yards on the other side, 4.1 yards per play, 19 first downs and 4-of-11 on third-down conversions alongside three takeaways. The nine points surrendered was Buffalo’s lowest total of the season so far, and the 40 points scored were second only to 41 versus the Ravens in the season opener.
As for KC, they took a little while to get going versus the Commanders on Monday but everything worked out in the end—despite nine penalties and a couple of picks. The Chiefs should give Buffalo a great game Sunday.
