Your cart is currently empty!
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 1/18/25 NFL Picks
Pick details
Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) vs Houston Texans (10-7)
January 18, 2025 at 04:30 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 — Over/Under: 41.5
The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs meet Saturday in the NFL AFC Divisional Playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Here’s a Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction. This article will include a Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
The Houston Texans just beat the Chargers, and the winner of this game plays the winner of Ravens-Bills. The Houston Texans have a shot to reach the first conference championship in franchise history. C.J. Stroud is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 282 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Nico Collins and Xavier Hutchinson have combined for 156 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Cade Strover has 4 receptions.
The Houston Texans ground game is averaging 168 yards per contest, and Joe Mixon leads the way with 106 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Houston is allowing 12 points and 261 yards per game. Eric Murray leads the Houston Texans with 7 tackles, Will Anderson Jr. has 1.5 sacks and Derek Stingley Jr. has 2 interceptions.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs won 15 games in the regular season and haven’t lost a home game. The Kansas City Chiefs look to make a seventh straight conference championship. Patrick Mahomes is completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 3,928 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy have combined for 1,461 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, while Noah Gray has 40 receptions.
The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 105.3 yards per contest, and Kareem Hunt leads the way with 728 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 19.2 points and 320.6 yards per game. Nick Bolton leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 106 tackles, George Karlaftis has 8 sacks and Jaden Hicks has 3 interceptions.
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 13 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium when playing with a rest advantage.
- The Texans have lost 10 of their 11 previous games against reigning Super Bowl champions.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 interstate games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Texans’ last eight postseason games.
- The Texans have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games following a win.
- The Texans have lost the first half in five of their six previous games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Why the Houston Texans will win
- The Texans have won four of their last five January games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Texans have covered the spread in five of their last six January games against AFC opponents.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Chiefs have lost the first half in four of their last five games as home favorites following a loss.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
- Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC South opponents.
- Kareem Hunt has recorded 35+ rushing yards in 20 of his last 23 appearances with the Chiefs as favorites.
- Travis Kelce has recorded 71+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 13 postseason games.
- Marquise Brown has recorded 45+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC South opponents.
- Travis Kelce is just one away from 20 career playoff touchdowns.
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 244+ passing yards in three of the Texans’ last four games following a win.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 18+ rushing yards in five of the Texans’ last six games following a win.
- Heading into the Divisional Round, Derek Stingley Jr. has recorded the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (2 vs Dolphins, Week 15).
Matchup/League Facts
- The Chiefs ranked 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (48.5%) during the reg. season.
- Heading into the Divisional Round, the Chiefs are one of only two teams to remain undefeated in home games this season ((8-0)).
- The Texans ranked 2nd in the NFL in interceptions (19) during the reg. season.
- The Texans were one of only two teams in the NFL to rank top 5 for both interceptions and sacks during the reg. season.
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
The Houston Texans already have endless injuries on the offensive side, and now Joe Mixon and Robert Woods are considered questionable. Mixon has been nursing an ankle injury and Woods has a hip issue. Already down Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, the Texans can’t afford to be without any more offensive playmakers.
The Chiefs saw receiver Mecole Hardman and cornerback Jaylen Watson practice this week. Both players were on injured reserve. Speaking of injured reserve, defensive tackle Marlon Tuipulotu was recently placed on it. After not playing the last week of the regular season and getting a bye week, this is as healthy as the Chiefs have been all season.
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
On paper, the Kansas City Chiefs should win this game comfortably. The Texans have a poor offensive line, and they’re down multiple key offensive players. The Chiefs are at home, and well rested, and Andy Reid’s success with extra time to prepare is god tier. With all that said, the Chiefs starters have been out multiple weeks and there’s a chance for rust. Also, the Chiefs’ offensive line isn’t great, and the one thing the Texans do have going for them is a great defense. The Texans are aggressive in the secondary, and their defensive line just sacked the Chargers four times. Also, the Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS this season when favorites of seven or more points. Ten of the Chief’s 15 wins were decided by seven or fewer points. I’ll grab the points with the Texans on the road.
