Falcons vs Steelers Prediction 9/13/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Falcons vs Steelers prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, September 13th at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 1 matchup.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 last season and they finished tied for first in the NFC South, but they lost the tiebreaker to the Panthers. Atlanta started the season with a 3-2 record, but they lost seven of their next eight games, before winning four straight to end the year. The Falcons played much better in the second half of the season, but they did allow 24+ points in eight of their last eleven games. Atlanta scored 20.8 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 23.6 points against per game on defense. 

In the preseason, Atlanta went 2-1, which was tied for second in the NFC South. The Falcons lost to the Broncos by a score of 27-7, defeated the Colts by a score of 34-6, and defeated the Dolphins by a score of 17-12 in their three games. Atlanta will have Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback with Bijan Robinson at running back and Drake London as the #1 receiver. 

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 last year and they finished first in the AFC North standings, which was two games ahead of the Ravens. Pittsburgh opened the season with a 34-32 win over the Jets, but lost to the Seahawks by a score of 31-17 in week two. The Steelers were 6-6 through 12 games, but they went 4-1 to end the season. Pittsburgh had an inconsistent offensive attack, but they scored 26+ points in six of their last eight games. The Steelers scored 23.4 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 22.8 points against per game on defense. 

In the preseason, Pittsburgh went 1-2, which was tied for third in the AFC North. The Steelers defeated the Packers by a score of 28-9, lost to the Jets by a score of 17-0, and lost to the Bills 28-27 in their three games. Pittsburgh will have Aaron Rodgers back as their starting QB with Jaylen Warren at running back and DK Metcalf as receiver. The Steelers had another winning season in 2025, but they haven’t made a deep run in the playoffs in a while. 

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

• The Falcons have lost each of their last six road games against AFC North opponents.
• The Steelers have won 14 of their last 16 games against the Falcons.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six road games against AFC North opponents.
• The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
• The Falcons have lost the first quarter in eight of their last 10 games against AFC North opponents.
• The Falcons have lost the first half in five of their last six road games in September.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Falcons have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Steelers have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home openers as favorites.
• The road team has covered the spread in five of the Steelers’ last six Week 1 games.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in three of the Steelers’ last four games.
• The Steelers have lost the first half in four of their last five season openers.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Steelers’ last five games without Cameron Heyward have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Falcons’ last five September games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

• Rico Dowdle has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC opponents.
• Rico Dowdle has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Jaylen Warren has recorded 45+ rushing yards in eight of the Steelers’ last nine games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• D.K. Metcalf has recorded 64+ receiving yards in each of his six previous home appearances against NFC South opponents.
• Jaylen Warren has recorded 68+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six appearances against NFC opponents.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 246+ passing yards in seven of his eight previous regular season appearances against the Falcons.
• Aaron Rodgers has recorded 21+ completions in each of his eight previous regular season appearances against the Falcons.
• Jaylen Warren ranked T3rd amongst qualified players for catch rate (88.9%) last season.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Brian Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of his four previous September appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 84+ rushing yards in eight of the Falcons’ last nine games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• Austin Hooper has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of his last 13 appearances with the Falcons as underdogs.
• Brian Robinson has recorded 51+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last nine Sunday regular season appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Drake London recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game last season (3 vs Patriots, Week 9).

Matchup/League Facts

• Steelers – 11 different players recorded one interception or more in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• The Steelers ranked 32nd in the NFL in Q4 opponent points per game (10.2) last season.
• The Falcons recorded the equal-most games with 5+ Sacks last season (6).
• The Falcons have recorded five consecutive games with an interception – equal-longest streak in the league.

Falcons vs Steelers Prediction 

Atlanta comes into this matchup hoping Tua is the answer to their quarterback needs and we will see if a change of scenery is going to help him. The Falcons have one of the most explosive players with Bijan Robinson, who is a touchdown waiting to happen every time he touches the ball. Pittsburgh was decent last year, but I still don’t love Rodgers at quarterback and the running game as some questions. I don’t expect a ton of points in this one, but I think Atlanta is in a decent spot to get the win, so I will take them with the points.

David Racey's Pick: Falcons +5.5