Dolphins vs Colts Prediction 9/7/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Dolphins vs Colts prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, September 7th at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 1 matchup.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins were 8-9 last season and they finished second in the AFC East, but they were five games behind the Bills. Miami started the season playing very poorly, as they were just 2-6, but they did improve down the stretch, before missing out on the playoffs. The Dolphins got wins against the Jaguars, Patriots (2), Rams, Raiders, Jets, 49ers, and Browns, while they lost to the Bills, Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Cardinals, Bills, Packers, Texans, and Jets. Miami scored 20.3 points per game last season, which ranked 22nd in the NFL, while they allowed 21.4 points against per game, which was 10th.

During the preseason, Miami tied the Bears in their first game by a score of 24-24, but they did win their last two games against the Lions and Jaguars by scores of 24-17 and 14-6. Miami had another disappointing season in 2024, which has become a theme for the organization. The Dolphins still have Tua at quarterback with Waddle and Hill on the outside, while Achane and Wright should start the season as the top two backs. Miami opened the 2024 season with 20-17 win over Jacksonville at home in week one. 

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 last year and they finished second in the AFC South standings, two games behind the Texans for first. Indianapolis started the season with a 4-3 record through seven weeks, but they lost four of the next five and didn’t win back to back games after week seven. The Colts picked up wins against the Bears, Steelers, Titans (2), Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, and Jaguars, while they lost to the Texans (2), Packers, Jaguars, Vikings, Bills, Lions, Broncos, and Giants. Indianapolis scored 22.2 points per game last season, which was ranked 17th in the NFL, while they allowed 25.1 points against per game, which was ranked 24th. 

In the preseason, the Colts lost their first two games against the Ravens and Packers by scores of 24-16 and 23-19, but they did win the finale by a score of 41-14 over the Bengals. Indianapolis didn’t play too poorly last season, but they just didn’t make enough big plays down the stretch to get another win or two. The Colts will have Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback, but Anthony Richardson is behind him and will push for playing time. Indianapolis has Taylor in the backfield and the receivers are led by Pittman Jr. and Downs. Indianapolis started last season with a 29-27 loss to Houston in week one. 

Why the Dolphins will beat the Colts

The Dolphins have won each of their last three road openers as underdogs against AFC opponents.
The Colts have lost 10 of their last 11 Week 1 games.
The Colts have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 Week 1 games.
The road team has covered the spread in five of the last six games between the Dolphins and Colts.
The Dolphins have won the first quarter in three of their last four September games as underdogs against AFC South opponents.
The road team has won the first half in four of the last five games between the Dolphins and Colts.

Total Points Facts

Each of the Colts’ last six September games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Eight of the Dolphins’ last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

Jonathan Taylor has recorded 103+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven Sunday appearances with the Colts as favorites.
Jonathan Taylor has recorded 91+ rushing yards in each of his last eight Sunday appearances with the Colts as favorites.
Daniel Jones has recorded 236+ passing yards in three of his four previous September appearances against AFC opponents.
Josh Downs has recorded 61+ receiving yards in five of his last six appearances against AFC opponents.
Daniel Jones has recorded 22+ completions in six of his last eight appearances.
Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances with the Colts as home favorites.
Jonathan Taylor recorded the most rushing attempts in a single game last season (34 vs Jaguars, Week 18).

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six Sunday appearances with his team as a road underdog.
Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 249+ passing yards in four of his last five September appearances against AFC opponents.
Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 25+ completions in three of his last four road appearances.
Jaylen Waddle has recorded 78+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four September road games against AFC opponents.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has recorded 31+ receiving yards in five of his last six Sunday road appearances.
Jason Sanders ranked 4th in the NFL in made field goals (37) last season.

Matchup/League Facts 

The Colts ranked 31st in the NFL in H2 opponent points per game (14.5) last season.
The Colts ranked T31st in the NFL in average points against in fourth quarters last season (9.7).
The Dolphins recorded a higher time of possession than their opponents in 14 games last season – most in the league.
The Dolphins have recorded a higher time of possession than their opponents in each of their last eight games – longest active streak in the league.

David Racey was 18-10 (64%) in the NFL Preseason this year. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

Dolphins vs Colts Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this season trying to improve on a shaky 2024 season, but the Colts will have the home field advantage here. Indianapolis is going with Daniel Jones at quarterback, who I don’t really trust, but maybe the change of scenery will make a difference. Miami is running it back with the same main players on offense, but the key to their season is staying healthy. This should be a very good battle in week one, but I trust Tua and the Miami offense to have a big day while playing indoors and being relatively healthy. Take the Dolphins to cover.