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Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets Prediction 10/5/2025 Today’s NFL Picks
Pick details
Dallas (1-2-1) vs New York (0-4)
October 5, 2025 at 01:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New York +3 — Over/Under: +47.5
The Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets meet Sunday in NFL action from MetLife Stadium. Here’s a Cowboys vs Jets prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cowboys vs Jets pick. We will examine:
The Dallas Cowboys recent form and player performance
The New York Jets recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Dallas Cowboys
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Jets
Recent betting trends in games played between the Cowboys and Jets
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cowboys vs Jets game
The Cowboys have certainly had their ups and downs in what’s been an eventful year so far. Dallas opened things up with a 24-20 loss to the rival Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, then eked out a dramatic win over the rival New York Giants the next weekend. Game three was another loss for the Cowboys however, this time 31-14 versus the Chicago Bears. Dallas didn’t look great offensively in that one, coughing up four turnovers and a pretty rough 3-of-11 success rate on third-down conversions. On the other side the Cowboys gave up 298 pass yards and 8-of-14 on third downs to the Bears.
In last weekend’s matchup versus the Green Bay Packers, Dallas added another wild game to their resume. The Cowboys scored 16 points in the second quarter and 14 more in the fourth but could only muster a 40-40 tie by the end of overtime. QB Dak Prescott logged a 31-of-40 line for 319 yards and three scores, while Javonte Williams led the rush on 85 yards and a TD off 20 totes. George Pickens had a great day receiving with eight grabs for 134 yards and two touchdowns in the tie ballgame.
Over on the Jets’ side, they’ve had a rough season already. New York kicked off the year with a tough home loss 34-32 versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, then fell 30-10 in Week 2 versus the Buffalo Bills. The Jets were down 23-6 versus the Buccaneers as the fourth quarter began in game three, but eventually made things interesting in a 29-27 loss. The Jets benefitted from 14 Tampa Bay penalties but also committed seven themselves. The two turnovers and 3-of-11 success rate on third-down tries didn’t help matters, either.
In Monday night’s low-intrigue matchup between two winless teams, the Jets took on the rival Miami Dolphins. New York gave up points in every quarter—including 14 in the third alone—and lost 27-21 despite a late surge. QB Justin Fields was 20-of-27 for 226 yards and a touchdown while also scoring a rush touchdown on seven carries for 81 yards. Breece Hall also had 81 yards and 14 carries, while Garrett Wilson led the rush on six grabs for 82 yards with a TD.
The Jets have won four of their last six games as underdogs against NFC East opponents.
The Cowboys have lost five of their last six road games against AFC East opponents.
The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Cowboys’ last five games.
The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
The home team has won the first half in six of the Cowboys’ last seven games.
The Jets have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as home underdogs against NFC opponents.
The Jets have lost seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
The Cowboys have won each of their last nine October games as favorites.
The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last four October games against AFC opponents.
The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.
The Cowboys have won the first quarter in three of their last four games against AFC East opponents.
Each of the Cowboys’ last five Week 5 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Five of the Jets’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
I’m staying with Dallas. The Cowboys haven’t had the greatest season so far, but the lowly Jets should be firmly within the team’s wheelhouse—especially in a home game. Last weekend against the Packers, Dallas didn’t do themselves any favors however, posting 11 penalties for 95 yards and 4-of-11 on third downs. The offense did manage to secure 436 yards (319 passing) but the Cowboys also gave up 489 yards, 32 first downs and 10-of-14 on third downs via the defense. That makes 31 or more points surrendered in three straight games.
As for New York, they at least were competitive on Monday night but the 13 penalties for 101 yards and three lost fumbles did them in. The Jets have reached 21 points in three of four games, so they’re not scoring terribly. The defense has given up 27 or more points in every outing, however.
The Dallas Cowboys recent form and player performance
The New York Jets recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Dallas Cowboys
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Jets
Recent betting trends in games played between the Cowboys and Jets
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cowboys vs Jets game
Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview
The Cowboys have certainly had their ups and downs in what’s been an eventful year so far. Dallas opened things up with a 24-20 loss to the rival Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, then eked out a dramatic win over the rival New York Giants the next weekend. Game three was another loss for the Cowboys however, this time 31-14 versus the Chicago Bears. Dallas didn’t look great offensively in that one, coughing up four turnovers and a pretty rough 3-of-11 success rate on third-down conversions. On the other side the Cowboys gave up 298 pass yards and 8-of-14 on third downs to the Bears.
In last weekend’s matchup versus the Green Bay Packers, Dallas added another wild game to their resume. The Cowboys scored 16 points in the second quarter and 14 more in the fourth but could only muster a 40-40 tie by the end of overtime. QB Dak Prescott logged a 31-of-40 line for 319 yards and three scores, while Javonte Williams led the rush on 85 yards and a TD off 20 totes. George Pickens had a great day receiving with eight grabs for 134 yards and two touchdowns in the tie ballgame.
New York Jets Betting Preview
Over on the Jets’ side, they’ve had a rough season already. New York kicked off the year with a tough home loss 34-32 versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, then fell 30-10 in Week 2 versus the Buffalo Bills. The Jets were down 23-6 versus the Buccaneers as the fourth quarter began in game three, but eventually made things interesting in a 29-27 loss. The Jets benefitted from 14 Tampa Bay penalties but also committed seven themselves. The two turnovers and 3-of-11 success rate on third-down tries didn’t help matters, either.
In Monday night’s low-intrigue matchup between two winless teams, the Jets took on the rival Miami Dolphins. New York gave up points in every quarter—including 14 in the third alone—and lost 27-21 despite a late surge. QB Justin Fields was 20-of-27 for 226 yards and a touchdown while also scoring a rush touchdown on seven carries for 81 yards. Breece Hall also had 81 yards and 14 carries, while Garrett Wilson led the rush on six grabs for 82 yards with a TD.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the New York Jets will win
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The Jets have won four of their last six games as underdogs against NFC East opponents.
The Cowboys have lost five of their last six road games against AFC East opponents.
The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Cowboys’ last five games.
The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
The home team has won the first half in six of the Cowboys’ last seven games.
The Jets have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as home underdogs against NFC opponents.
Why the Dallas Cowboys will win
The Jets have lost seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
The Cowboys have won each of their last nine October games as favorites.
The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last four October games against AFC opponents.
The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.
The Cowboys have won the first quarter in three of their last four games against AFC East opponents.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Cowboys’ last five Week 5 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Five of the Jets’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
Cowboys vs Jets Prediction
I’m staying with Dallas. The Cowboys haven’t had the greatest season so far, but the lowly Jets should be firmly within the team’s wheelhouse—especially in a home game. Last weekend against the Packers, Dallas didn’t do themselves any favors however, posting 11 penalties for 95 yards and 4-of-11 on third downs. The offense did manage to secure 436 yards (319 passing) but the Cowboys also gave up 489 yards, 32 first downs and 10-of-14 on third downs via the defense. That makes 31 or more points surrendered in three straight games.
As for New York, they at least were competitive on Monday night but the 13 penalties for 101 yards and three lost fumbles did them in. The Jets have reached 21 points in three of four games, so they’re not scoring terribly. The defense has given up 27 or more points in every outing, however.
Andrew Jett's Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3
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