Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction 9/27/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Chiefs vs Dolphins prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, September 27th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 3 matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 2-0 this year after they defeated the Colts in overtime by a score of 33-30 last week. Kansas City trailed 20-17 at halftime, but they blew a 27-20 lead in the fourth, before escaping with a win late in overtime. The Chiefs out gained Indianapolis by a total of 523-329, went 5-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Patrick Mahomes threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns, while Travis Kelce caught nine passes for 101 yards and one score. Kenneth Walker III rushed 24 times for 117 yards in the game. 

Prior to that win, Kansas City defeated the Broncos by a score of 31-10 in week one. The Chiefs have scored 32.0 points per game with 271.5 passing yards and 186.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 20.0 points against per game this season. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 566 yards with five touchdowns and one interception, while Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 290 yards and one touchdown this year. 

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins are 0-2 this season after they lost to the 49ers by a score of 35-13 in their last game. Miami trailed 14-6 at halftime, but they allowed 21 points in the third quarter to seal the loss. The Dolphins were out gained by a total of 382-284, went 7-15 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. Malik Willis threw for 197 yards and one touchdown, while Ryan Miller caught one pass for 77 yards and one score. De’Von Achane rushed 20 times for 74 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Miami lost to the Raiders by a score of 27-13 in week one. The Dolphins have scored 13.0 points per game with 183.5 passing yards and 88.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 31.0 points against per game this season. Malik Willis has thrown for 417 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while De’Von Achane has 110 rushing yards on 31 carries this season. 

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Chiefs have lost each of their last four Sunday games as road favorites.
• The Dolphins have won 12 of their last 13 home games against AFC West opponents on a winning streak.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight Sunday games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 11 games.
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in five of their last six road openers against AFC East opponents.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won 35 of their last 36 games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
• The Dolphins have lost eight of their last nine games in September.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The favorites have covered the spread in six of the Dolphins’ last seven games.
• The Dolphins have lost the first half in each of their last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in each of their last three Sunday games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins’ last eight games at Hard Rock Stadium following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Ten of the Chiefs’ last 11 Sunday games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of the Dolphins’ last 13 Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 67+ rushing yards in each of his last eight appearances on the East Coast.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 100+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Dolphins’ last six September games at Hard Rock Stadium.
• Malik Willis has recorded 197+ passing yards in each of his last three appearances.
• Jalen Tolbert has recorded 11+ receiving yards in 15 of his last 16 Sunday appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Malik Willis has been sacked 9 times this season – most in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in each of the Chiefs’ last three games at Hard Rock Stadium.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last seven games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
• Kenneth Walker III has recorded 97+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances.
• Xavier Worthy has recorded 37+ rushing and receiving yards in six of the Chiefs’ last seven games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
• Heading into Week 3, Matt Araiza ranks 1st amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (54.5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 3, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in Q3 opponent points per game (15.5) this season.
• Heading into Week 3, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in average point differential in third quarters this season (-12.0).
• Chiefs – three different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Chiefs – three different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.

Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction 

Kansas City comes into this matchup with a 2-0 record, but they needed overtime to get by the Colts last week. The Chiefs have scored 64 points through two games and Mahomes/Kelce both look great. Miami is 0-2 and they have been outscored 62-26 to start the season. The Dolphins have been pretty bad on both sides of the ball and they need to figure things out quickly. I would love to take this many points with a home team, but I can’t make the same mistake I did last week. Take KC to win and cover here.

David Racey's Pick: Chiefs -10.5