Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Prediction 1/17/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos meet Saturday in the AFC Divisional Playoffs at Empower Field. Here’s a Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Prediction. This article will include a Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Pick.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills beat the Jets and Jaguars. The Bills have won 6 of their last 7 games. The Bills look to make the conference championship for a second straight season. Josh Allen is completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have combined for 1,290 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, while Dawson Knox has 36 receptions.

The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 159.6 yards per contest, and James Cook leads the way with 1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 21.5 points and 293.1 yards per game. Cole Bishop leads the Buffalo Bills with 85 tackles, Greg Rousseau has 7 sacks and Maxwell Hairston has 2 interceptions.

Denver Broncos Betting Preview

The Denver Broncos beat the Chiefs and Chargers. The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 games. The Broncos look to make their first conference championship since the 2015 season. Bo Nix is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 3,931 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton have combined for 1,726 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, while Evan Engram has 50 receptions.

The Denver Broncos ground game is averaging 118.7 yards per contest, and J.K. Dobbins leads the way with 772 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Denver is allowing 18.3 points and 278.2 yards per game. Alex Singleton leads the Denver Broncos with 135 tackles, Nik Bonitto has 14 sacks and Dondrea Tillman has 2 interceptions.

Why the Denver Broncos will win

• The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 home games.
• The Bills have lost eight of their last nine postseason road games against AFC opponents.
• The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last six home games following a Division game.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs without Dawson Knox.
• The Bills have won the first quarter in four of their last six games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• The Bills have lost the first half in five of their six previous games at Empower Field at Mile High.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won each of their last four games as underdogs against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Broncos have lost each of their last two games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Nik Bonitto.
• The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Broncos have lost the first half in three of their last four games.
• The Broncos have lost the first quarter in four of their last six games as home favorites following a home win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Broncos’ last six postseason games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of the Bills’ last 10 games without Dawson Knox have gone UNDER the total points line.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in five of the Broncos’ last six home games against teams on a winning streak.
• Jaleel McLaughlin has recorded 22+ rushing yards in each of the Broncos’ last five games as favorites.
• Bo Nix has recorded 295+ passing yards in each of the Broncos’ last three games following a home win.
• Troy Franklin has recorded 21+ receiving yards in 10 of the Broncos’ last 11 games following a home win.
• Bo Nix has recorded 23+ completions in five of the Broncos’ last six games following a win.
• Marvin Mims Jr. has recorded 18+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Broncos’ last five games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Heading into the Divisional Round, Riley Moss ranks T1st in the league for passes defensed (19) this season.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• James Cook has recorded 85+ rushing yards in eight of the Bills’ last 10 road games.
• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Bills’ last five road games against teams on a winning streak.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 32+ receiving yards in seven of his eight previous postseason appearances.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 42+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last five January road appearances.
• Heading into the Divisional Round, Khalil Shakir has recorded the most receptions in a single playoff game this season (12 vs Jaguars, Wild Card Round).

Matchup/League Facts

• The Broncos ranked 1st in the NFL in punt return yards per game (28.3) during the reg. season.
• The Broncos ranked 1st in the NFL in red zone percentage against (42.6%) during the reg. season.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.
• Bills – nine different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Prediction

You can talk yourself into the Bills as an underdog, as they may not be the better team, but none of that matters when Josh Allen is the quarterback. Since December 2024, the Bills are 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog. I’m still going to lean toward the Broncos in this pick em spot. Home field, rest advantage, and an elite defense that just finds a way. The Broncos’ offense is also underrated, as it finished 10th in total offense and 14th in scoring.

Nix takes care of the ball and there are some playmakers on the outside. The Broncos also just have a confidence about them that they’ll find a way, losing just one game since week 4. This has the potential to get sweaty late in the fourth quarter. I’ll still ride with the defense of the Broncos to will its way to victory.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Denver Broncos -1.5