Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 1/26/25 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) vs Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Game Info: Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:30 pm (GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium)

Betting Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: CBS

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet Sunday in the AFC Championship at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Here’s a Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction. This article will include a Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills beat the Broncos and Ravens, and the winner of this game plays the winner of the Commanders - Eagles. The Bills look to make their first Super Bowl appearance since the 1993 season. Josh Allen is completing 75 percent of his passes for 399 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel have combined for 205 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Dalton Kincaid has 4 receptions.

The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 178.5 yards per contest, and James Cook leads the way with 187 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 16 points and 320 yards per game. Demar Hamlin leads the Buffalo Bills with 12 tackles, Greg Rousseau has 2 sacks and Taylor Rapp has 1 interception.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs just beat the Texans and haven’t lost a home game this season. The Kansas City Chiefs look to make their fifth Super Bowl in the last six seasons. Patrick Mahomes is completing 64 percent of his passes for 177 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy have combined for 162 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Noah Gray has 3 receptions.

The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 50 yards per contest, and Kareem Hunt leads the way with 44 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 14 points and 336 yards per game. Justin Reid leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 7 tackles, George Karlaftis has 3 sacks and Trent McDuffie has 3 pass deflections.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 14 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium when playing with a rest advantage.
  • The Bills have lost each of their last seven road postseason games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in each of the Bills' last four games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against reigning Super Bowl champions.
  • The Bills have lost the first half in three of their last four January road games against AFC opponents.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

  • The Bills have won each of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last five Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven Sunday games.
  • The Chiefs have lost the first half in four of their last five Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Chiefs ranked 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (48.5%) during the reg. season.
  • Heading into the Conference Championships, the Chiefs are one of only two teams to remain undefeated in home games this season ((8-0)).
  • The Bills ranked 1st in the NFL in H2 points per game (16.6) during the reg. season.
  • The Bills ranked 1st in the NFL in H2 win percentage (76.5) during the reg. season.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report

Offensive lineman Dion Dawkins, linebacker Matt Milano, cornerback Christian Benford, and safety Taylor Rapp are questionable for the Bills.

Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

I considered the Bills and the points because you can make a case they're the better team this season. The Chiefs have also had endless weird ways where they've won, and you have to question if some of that magic will wear off at some point. With that said, the Chiefs are at home, where they have yet to lose this season. You have to go back to Christmas 2023 the last time the Chiefs lost at home. The Chiefs also know how to win this time of year, as they're chasing a third straight Super Bowl and their fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last six years. Since 2019, the Chiefs are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games as a favorite in the playoffs. With the soft line, I have to side with the Chiefs at home.

Randy’s Pick Kansas City Chiefs -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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