Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Prediction NFL Picks 11/28/24

Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

The Green Bay Packers are 8-3 this season after they defeated San Francisco by a score of 38-10 in their last game. Green Bay led 17-7 at the half and they pulled away in the second half for the huge win. The Packers outgained San Francisco by a total of 325-241, won the turnover battle 3-0, and went 6-13 on third down in the game. Jordan Love threw for 163 yards and two touchdowns, while Josh Jacobs rushed for 106 yards and three scores. 

Prior to that game, the Packers defeated the Bears by a score of 20-19 but did lose to Detroit before that. The Green Bay offense has scored 26.2 points per game with 230.7 passing yards and 151.6 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.3 points per game this season. Jordan Love has completed 61.8% of his passes for 2,244 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Josh Jacobs has rushed for 944 yards and seven scores. 

Why the Dolphins will beat the Packers

• The Dolphins have won five of their last six November games as underdogs.
• The Packers have lost five of their last seven November games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last five games in November.
• The Dolphins have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as road underdogs following a win.
• The Packers have lost the first half in each of their last three Thursday games at Lambeau Field.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins' last four Thursday games has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Packers' last four Thursday home games has gone OVER the total points line.

Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts

• Christian Watson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers' last three Thursday games.
• Tucker Kraft has recorded 31+ receiving yards in nine of the Packers' last 12 games as favorites.
• Jordan Love has recorded 258+ passing yards in seven of his last nine appearances at Lambeau Field.
• Jordan Love has recorded 22+ completions in eight of his last nine appearances at Lambeau Field.
• Jordan Love has thrown two or more touchdowns in eight of his last nine home appearances.
• Heading into Week 13, Xavier McKinney is the only player to record at least one interception in five consecutive appearances this season.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Tua Tagovailoa has thrown three touchdowns in each of the Dolphins' last two road games against NFC North opponents.
• De'Von Achane has recorded 77+ rushing yards in each of his three previous appearances with the Dolphins as underdogs following a win.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 302+ passing yards in each of the Dolphins' last three games against NFC North opponents.
• De'Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in four of his five previous appearances following a home win.
• Odell Beckham Jr. has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his 26 previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against NFC opponents.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins' last four games following a win.
• Marcus Maye is just two away from 10 career interceptions.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 13, the Packers rank T1st in the NFL in Q1 win percentage (72.7) this season.
• Heading into Week 13, the Packers rank 31st in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (24.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 13, the Dolphins rank T30th in the NFL in Q2 win percentage (18.2) this season.
• Heading into Week 13, the Dolphins have lost three games from a half-time lead this season - equal-most in the league.

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Prediction 

Miami comes into this matchup on a three-game winning streak and they have scored 34 points in each of their last two games. The Dolphins have played very well on both sides of the ball recently, but they have beaten up on some bad teams. Green Bay has won six of their last seven games and just blew the doors off of San Francisco last week. Green Bay has been able to win eight of their first 11 games, but they are inconsistent and nearly lost to the Bears two weeks ago. This should be a great game and I think either team could win, so I will take the points with Miami.