New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction NFL Picks 9/8/24

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Bengals were 9-8 last year and they finished fourth in the AFC North. Cincinnati finished last in the division, but they weren’t that bad, as they were still above .500. The AFC North was loaded last year and they had to deal with the Burrow injury, as he only started 10 games. The Bengals averaged 21.5 points per game last season, while they allowed 22.6 points against per game. Cincinnati did finish the 2023 season with some momentum, as they won four of their last six games. 

Cincinnati went 0-3 in the preseason, which began with a 17-14 loss against Tampa Bay. The Bengals dropped their second game by a score of 27-3 against Chicago and lost the finale by a score of 27-14 against the Colts. The Bengals are expecting another huge season from Burrow, but the contract situation with Chase is something to monitor. I would assume Chase is going to play in the opener, but you never know what could happen when it comes to contracts. 

Why the Patriots will cover

• The Bengals have lost four of their last five home openers as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Patriots have won four of their last six games as underdogs against AFC North opponents.
• The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home openers as favorites.
• The Patriots have won the first quarter in four of their last five Week 1 road games.
• The Bengals have lost the first half in each of their last four season openers as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Bengals' last eight home games against AFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Patriots' last five season openers against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.

Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Facts

• Tee Higgins has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bengals' last two September home games against AFC opponents.
• Joe Burrow has recorded 259+ passing yards in each of the Bengals' last five regular season games against AFC East opponents.
• Joe Burrow has recorded 24+ completions in each of his last six regular-season appearances at Paycor Stadium.
• Joe Burrow has thrown two or more touchdowns in nine of his last 10 regular season home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Tee Higgins has recorded 93+ receiving yards in each of the Bengals' last five games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
• Zack Moss has recorded 30+ rushing yards in eight of his last nine home appearances.
• Trey Hendrickson ranked T2nd in the NFL in sacks (17.5) last season.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in six of his last eight appearances with the Patriots as road underdogs.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 50+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots' last three September games against AFC opponents.
• Kendrick Bourne has scored a touchdown in each of his last two Sunday appearances.
• Antonio Gibson has recorded 16+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Kyle Dugger is just one away from 10 career interceptions (including playoffs).

Matchup/League Facts

• The Bengals ranked 30th in the NFL in average yards per punt (44.3) last season.
• The Bengals ranked 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (248.4) last season.
• The Patriots ranked T31st in the NFL in points per game (13.9) last season.
• The Patriots ranked 31st in the NFL in average punt return (6.3 yards) last season.

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction 

Cincinnati opens the season as a pretty big favorite to get the win at home, but I am interested to see if it is going to take the Bengals some time to get things going. New England played a good amount of starters in the preseason and they should be ready to roll, which could be an advantage for them. Burrow hasn’t played in almost 10 months and we don’t know how Chase is feeling towards this game, so I think the Patriots can keep this game close. I don’t expect New England to get the win, but I think they can cover this number.