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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction 1/21/2026 Today’s NBA Picks
Pick details
| MATCHUP | Oklahoma City Thunder | Milwaukee Bucks |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 36-8 | 18-24 |
| Spread | -9.5 -110 | +9.5 -110 |
| Moneyline | -395 | +310 |
| Total | Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110) |
| Where | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI | |
| When | Wednesday, January 21, 2026 | |
| Time | 09:30 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Cavs, lost to the Heat, and then play the Pacers next. The Thunder have won 40 of their last 48 regular season games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 121.4 points on 8.9 percent shooting and allowing 108.4 points on 43.7 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.9 points and 6.4 assists, while Chet Holmgren is averaging 18.1 points and 8.3 rebounds. Jalen Williams is the third double-digit scorer and Ajay Mitchell is grabbing 3.4 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 35.5 percent from beyond the arc and 82.6 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 37.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.9 rebounds per game.
Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview
The Milwaukee Bucks lost to the Spurs, beat the Hawks, and they play the Nuggets next. The Bucks have lost 4 of their last 6 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 112.9 points on 48.5 percent shooting and allowing 115.1 points on 46.4 percent shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points and 9.8 rebounds, while Kevin Porter Jr. is averaging 18.2 points and 5.3 rebounds. Ryan Rollins is the third double-digit scorer and Bobby Portis is grabbing 6.5 rebounds. The Milwaukee Bucks are shooting 39.5 percent from beyond the arc and 73.9 percent from the free throw line. The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing 36.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 40.6 rebounds per game.
Why the Milwaukee Bucks will win
- The Bucks have won each of their last four games as home underdogs following a road win.
- The Thunder have lost four of their last seven games as road favorites following a win.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against Eastern Conference opponents following a win.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Bucks’ last five games.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won 47 of their last 48 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Bucks have lost seven of their last eight games following a road win.
- The Bucks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games following a win.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in four of their last five games as favorites against the Bucks.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the last six games between the Thunder and Bucks at Fiserv Forum have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Thunder’s last six games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Milwaukee Bucks Player Facts
- AJ Green ranks 10th amongst qualified players for 3P% (43.7%) this season.
- Ryan Rollins ranks 13th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.5) this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Isaiah Joe ranks 5th amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Bucks rank 30th for second chance points (485) this season.
- The Bucks rank 30th for second chance points per game (11.5) this season.
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+13.5).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (17.8).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
The Bucks will be without Taurean Prince. Kevin Porter Jr. and Myles Turner are questionable.
The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Nikola Topic, and Isaiah Hartenstein. Jaylin Williams is questionable.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
The Thunder have the ability to blow out a Bucks team that struggles with consistency, but they’re banged up and not the cover team they’ve been in years past. The Thunder are just 22-22 ATS on the season. The Bucks are 2-1 SU and ATS this season when home dogs of 7 or more points. This isn’t a season where we just blindly back the Thunder and big numbers, and it’s even less of a case given their injury report. Give me the Bucks and the points.
