New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Prediction 1/4/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The New Orleans Pelicans and the Miami Heat do battle at the Kaseya Center on Sunday night. Here’s a New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Prediction. This article will include a New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Pick.

New Orleans Pelicans Betting Preview 

The New Orleans Pelicans have been in a real slump as they are now on a six-game losing streak after getting routed by the Trail Blazers in a 122-109 loss on Friday. Zion Williamson led the team with 35 points on 15 of 26 shooting, Jeremiah Fears added 18 points with five rebounds and four assists while Jordan Poole and Karlo Matkovic each scored 16 points.

As a team, the Pelicans shot 45 percent from the field and eight of 30 from the 3-point line as they got off to a flyer with 37 points in the first quarter to take the early lead. However, it didn’t last long at all as the Pelicans were always trailing after getting outscored by 34-18 in the second quarter. The Pelicans fell behind in this one by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter before they finished with a flurry to keep the final margin respectable. 

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat will be eager to bounce back in this one after having their four-game win streak halted by the Timberwolves in a 125-115 loss last night. Norman Powell led the team with 21 points, Nikola Jovic and Davion Mitchell each scored 14 points while Bam Adebayo tallied 12 points with nine rebounds and four assists.

As a team, the Heat shot just 47 percent from the field and 14 of 37 from the 3-point line. This was enough to hang tough in a close contest until the Timberwolves opened the fourth quarter on a ferocious 19-4 run to snatch the game away. No player other than Powell was able to get going and they only had one bench player score more than nine points. 

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Pelicans have lost 28 of their last 29 road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Heat have won each of their last seven games against the Pelicans at Kaseya Center following a loss.
• The Heat have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against the Pelicans following a loss.
• The Pelicans have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine night games against Southeast Division opponents that held a winning record.

Why the New Orleans Pelicans will win

• The Heat have lost each of their last three games as home favorites following a loss.
• The underdogs have won four of the Heat’s last six games at Kaseya Center.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as favorites against Southwest Division opponents.
• The Pelicans have covered the spread in each of their last three games when playing with a rest advantage.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Heat’s last five home games following a home loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Pelicans’ last four games as road underdogs against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Heat rank 1st in the league for pace this season (104.1).
• The Heat rank 3rd in the league for points per game this season (120.7).
• The Pelicans rank 1st for points in the paint (2102) this season.
• The Pelicans rank 29th in the league for opponent assists per game this season (29.2).

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Prediction

The Pelicans are still missing Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, and Dejounte Murray, with Derik Queen and Trey Murphy III both listed as questionable. Meanwhile, the Heat have ruled out Tyler Herro again, with Pelle Larsson and Jaime Jacquez Jr both listed as day to day. The Pelicans could really do with a win just to stop the six-game slide, but now they’re up against a Heat team who were on a roll before they got stopped by the Timberwolves last night.

The Heat will be playing their second game of a back to back set, but they still rightfully open as solid favorites at home. The Pelicans could get some reinforcements back, which could shift the line for this one, but I am still sticking with the more reliable Heat to get the job done at home.

Peter Tran's Pick: Miami -6.5