Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 1/11/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Sunday in NBA action at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview

The Miami Heat lost to the Timberwolves and Pacers, and they play the Suns next. The Heat have won 5 of their last 8 games.

The Miami Heat are averaging 120.1 points on 46.9 percent shooting and allowing 117.4 points on 45.9 percent shooting. Norman Powell is averaging 24.4 points and 3.7 rebounds, while Tyler Herro is averaging 23.2 points and 2.3 assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is grabbing 5.3 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 37 percent from beyond the arc and 79.3 percent from the free-throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 34.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.6 rebounds per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Jazz and Grizzlies, and then play the Spurs next. The Thunder have won 36 of their last 43 regular season games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 121.9 points on 49.4 percent shooting and allowing 107.2 points on 43.1 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.1 points and 6.4 assists, while Chet Holmgren is averaging 18.2 points and 8.2 rebounds. Jalen Williams is the third double-digit scorer and Ajay Mitchell is grabbing 3.5 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc and 83.7 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 37.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.2 rebounds per game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won 22 of their last 23 games against Southeast Division opponents.
• The Heat have lost each of their last six games following a road loss.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as road underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Thunder have lost four of their last five night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Heat have won two of their last three games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
• The Heat have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 road games against Western Conference opponents after losing as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Heat’s last six road games against Northwest Division opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Thunder’s last five home games against the Heat have gone UNDER the total points line.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• The Thunder are allowing just 102.5 points per 48 minutes while Cason Wallace are on the floor this season – lowest mark of any qualified player in the league.
• Jalen Williams ranks T45th amongst qualified players for FT% (84.6%) this season.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Andrew Wiggins is one of only six qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.
• Norman Powell ranks 7th amongst qualified players for fast break points per game (3.8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (18.2).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent field goal percentage this season (43.5%).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for pace this season (104.5).
• The Heat rank 29th in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (80.6%).

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report

The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic, and Isaiah Hartenstein.

The Heat will be without Terry Rozier.

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Heat suck again, as the offense appears to be broken, and they’re fresh off a loss last night to the Pacers. The Heat are a frustrating bunch, as there are weeks where they’re one of the best offenses in the league and then others where they struggle to crack 90 points. The Thunder will smoke the Heat if the ladder continues. With that said, the Heat usually plays to the level of competition, so I kind of expect them to show up here. We also typically don’t get the Heat as massive dogs, as this will b the first time since last April where they’re a double-digit dog. Also, this is a look ahead spot for OKC with the Spurs on deck. I’ll take a stab with the points.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Miami Heat +13.5