Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction 3/29/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Miami Heat pay a visit to the Indiana Pacers at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday night. Here’s a Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

The Miami Heat have been in a slump as they’ve dropped six of their last seven games overall and they will be hoping for a better effort after getting humbled by the Cavaliers in a 149-128 road defeat on Friday. Jaime Jacquez Jr. led the team with 20 points on nine of 13 shooting off the bench; Norman Powell added 15 points while Bam Adebayo tallied 14 points with 16 rebounds.

As a team, the Heat shot 44 percent from the field and 15 of 46 from the 3-point line as they got off to a terrible start and got outscored by an incredible 82-46 in the first half, which was always too much to overcome despite a stronger second half. Adebayo had a rough shooting night as he shot just three of 14 from the field, while Davion Mitchell scored just two points on one of six shooting. 

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have been ice-cold as they’ve dropped 22 of their last 25 games overall and they will be hoping to snap a two-game skid after falling painfully short to the Clippers in a heartbreaking 114-113 loss on Friday. Aaron Nesmith led the team with 26 points on 10 of 14 shooting; Obi Toppin added 20 points with eight rebounds and four assists, while Andrew Nembhard tallied 13 points with 10 assists.

As a team, the Pacers shot 49 percent from the field and 16 of 36 from the 3-point line as they stormed out of the gates with 42 points in the first quarter to take an early 24-point lead, but they allowed the Clippers back into the contest and eventually got stung in the final second of the game, where the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard drained the game winner to snatch the game away. 

Why the Indiana Pacers will win

• The Pacers have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Heat.
• The Heat have lost 13 of their last 18 games as favorites against Central Division opponents.
• The Pacers have covered the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse following a road loss.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Pacers have lost each of their last 11 games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
• The Heat have won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Heat have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games on the first leg of a back-to-back against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven Sunday games as underdogs.

Total Points: Facts

• Nine of the last 10 night games between the Heat and Pacers have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the Heat’s last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction

The Heat are still keeping an eye on Norman Powell, who is questionable due to back spasms, while the Pacers have listed Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, TJ McConnell, Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam all as questionable.

The Heat have opened as heavy road favorites in this one, which comes as no surprise, but they have really struggled lately and they are now up against an unpredictable Pacers squad who should’ve beaten the Clippers in their last outing. This is definitely a game where you should check the lineups before tipoff given the injury cloud hanging over the Pacers, but as it stands, I prefer a play on the Pacers to keep this one closer than it really should be.

Peter Tran's Pick: Indiana +9.5