Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons Prediction 1/1/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Miami Heat travel to Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on New Year’s Day. Here’s a Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

The Miami Heat look to have moved on from their slump as they are now gunning for a fourth straight victory after blowing past the Nuggets in a 147-123 home win on Monday. Norman Powell led the team with 25 points on nine of 16 shooting, Nikola Jovic added 22 points, Jaime Jacquez Jr tallied 20 points with 11 assists while Andrew Wiggins and Kel’el Ware each scored 19 points.

As a team, the Heat shot 54 percent from the field and a sizzling 22 of 46 from the 3-point line as they went cold in the second quarter to waste an early double digit lead. However, they made up for that with an impressive 84 points in the second half to smash the Nuggets with ease in the end. With the win, the Heat improved to 18-15 overall and 12-5 at home this season. 

Detroit Pistons Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons have been in great shape as they’ve won eight of their last 11 games overall and they will be eager to keep it going after making light work of the Lakers in a 128-106 road win on Tuesday. Cade Cunningham led the team with 27 points and 11 assists on 12 of 19 shooting, Marcus Sasser added 19 points with five assists while Jalen Duren chipped in with 14 points, eight rebounds and five steals.

As a team, the Pistons shot a sizzling 63 percent from the field and 11 of 24 from the 3-point line as they stormed out of the gates with 70 points in the first half to take the early lead. However, despite their hot shooting, they couldn’t really pull away until the fourth quarter where they restricted the Lakers to just 18 points. 

Why the Detroit Pistons will win

• The Pistons have won each of their last seven home games against Eastern Conference opponents following a win.
• The Heat have lost nine of their last 10 road games against Central Division opponents following a win.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against the Pistons after winning as underdogs.
• The Pistons have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 night games against the Heat.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won five of their last six games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Pistons have lost five of their last six Thursday games as home favorites.
• The Pistons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites following a road win.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the last 10 games between the Heat and Pistons.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Heat’s last five games against the Pistons following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between the Heat and Pistons have gone OVER the total points line.

Detroit Pistons Player Facts

• Isaiah Stewart ranks 4th amongst qualified players for blocks per game (1.9) this season.
• Ron Holland II ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per 36 minutes (2.5) this season.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Kel’el Ware is one of only two qualified players in the league averaging a double-double while shooting over 40% from three this season.
• Andrew Wiggins is one of only four qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pistons rank 30th in the league for opponent free throws made per game this season (23.6).
• The Pistons rank 30th in the league for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (29.3).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for pace this season (104.1).
• The Heat rank 29th in the league for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (40.8).

Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons Prediction

The Heat are still missing Tyler Herro and Pelle Larsson with Simone Fontecchio listed as questionable, while the Pistons have ruled out Tobias Harris and Caris LeVert for this one. The Heat have really sprung to life with three impressive wins in a row and they will be brimming with confidence after smashing the Nuggets in a big win on Monday. Meanwhile, the Pistons enter this contest as one of the hottest teams in the league after smashing the Lakers in an easy win on Tuesday.

The Heat are certainly capable of pulling off the upset on the road if they play like they did on Monday, but those performances have been few and far between this season. The Pistons have been one the most consistent teams since the start of the season and I think they get the win and cover at this short line at home.

Peter Tran's Pick: Detroit -4.5