Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets Prediction 4/14/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Miami Heat and the Charlotte Hornets duke it out in the NBA Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday night. Here’s a Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

The Miami Heat haven’t been at their best, as they lost 10 of their last 15 games of the regular season to finish with a 43-39 overall record. However, the Heat did finish the season on a high as they smashed the Hawks by 143-117 on Sunday thanks to the strength of their bench. Bam Adebayo led the starters with 25 points, 10 rebounds, three steals and two blocks. Jaime Jaquez Jr. led the reserves with 26 points and five assists on 12 of 17 shooting. Norman Powell added 25 points while Kel’el Ware chipped in with 16 points.

As a team, the Heat shot a healthy 56 percent from the field and 15 of 37 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 33 points in the first quarter to take the early lead, but this was still a relatively close game until the fourth quarter, where the Heat exploded for 44 points to make it a complete blowout win at home in the end. 

Charlotte Hornets Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets have been in terrific shape as they won 12 of their last 17 games heading to cap off the regular season and they will be full of confidence after smashing the Knicks by 110-96 back on Sunday. LaMelo Ball led the team with 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists; Brandon Miller added 19 points on five of 12 shooting, while Coby White chipped in with 19 points on six of 10 shooting off the bench.

As a team, the Hornets shot just 46 percent from the field and 19 of 52 from the 3-point line, but this win was more about their defense, as they restricted the Knicks to just 44 points in the first half to open up a 21-point lead, which was more than enough to hold off the shorthanded Knicks, who were held to just 43 percent shooting from the field for the game. 

Why the Charlotte Hornets will win

• The Hornets have won nine of their last 10 night games against Southeast Division opponents.
• The Heat have lost four of their last five road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Hornets have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites following a win.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won five of their last six games as underdogs against Southeast Division opponents following a win.
• The Hornets have lost six of their last seven games against Heat teams that held a winning record.
• The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last five night games against Hornets teams that held a winning record.
• The Hornets have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against Heat teams that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Heat’s last six night games against Southeast Division opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Hornets’ last four games against Southeast Division opponents has gone OVER the total points line.

Charlotte Hornets Player Facts

• Brandon Miller ranks 2nd amongst qualified Forwards for FT% (89.2%) this season.
• Ryan Kalkbrenner ranks 6th amongst qualified players for blocks per 36 minutes (2.5) this season.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Kel’el Ware is one of only two players in the league to have recorded 5+ steals in consecutive games this season.
• Andrew Wiggins is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 three, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Hornets rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (20.4).
• The Hornets have missed the playoffs in 10 consecutive seasons—the longest active streak in the NBA.
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for field goal attempts per game this season (93.3).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for pace this season (103.4).

Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets Prediction

The Heat have ruled out Nikola Jovic and Dru Smith again, with Pelle Larsson listed as a game-time decision, while the Hornets have ruled out PJ Hall once again. These teams met four times in the regular season, with the Heat winning the series by 3-1, but it was the Hornets who won the most recent meeting by 136-106 back on Mar 17.

The Heat stumbled their way into the postseason, while the Hornets have been in great shape and will obviously be excited for a playoff run after catching fire midseason. This is a tough one to pick, but the Heat were poor on the road this season and I think that trend continues in this one as the Heat hang around early before allowing the Hornets to pull away at the end.

Peter Tran's Pick: Charlotte -5.5