Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction 2/6/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Miami Heat pay a visit to the Boston Celtics at the TD Garden on Friday night. Here’s a Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

The Miami Heat have been in decent form as they’ve won four of their last seven games overall, but they will be hoping to bounce back in this one after getting thrashed by the Hawks in a 127-115 loss on Tuesday. Jaime Jacquez Jr led the team in scoring with 21 points, eight rebounds and three assists, Simone Fontecchio and Pelle Larsson each scored 18 points while Bam Adebayo chipped in with 16 points and 14 rebounds.

As a team, the Heat shot 44 percent from the field and eight of 32 from the 3-point line, but their problems were on the defensive end as they got outscored by 67-50 in the first half. As hard as they tried, the Heat couldn’t threaten in the second half and trailed by as many as 23 points in the fourth quarter. 

Boston Celtics Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics have been in great form as they’ve won nine of their last 12 games overall and they will be hoping to build on a four-game win streak after smashing the Rockets in a 114-93 road win on Wednesday. Derrick White led the team with 28 points and eight assists, Payton Pritchard added 27 points and seven assists off the bench while Luka Garza chipped in with 19 points.

As a team, the Celtics shot 43 percent from the field and 19 of 51 from the 3-point line, but this win was set up by their defense as they restricted the Rockets to just 42 points in the first half. Before the Celtics opened the third quarter on a 28-6 run to put the game to bed early. 

Why the Boston Celtics will win

• The Celtics have won eight of their last nine games against the Heat.
• The Heat have lost each of their last six games against the Celtics after losing as favorites.
• The Celtics have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites against the Heat.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against the Celtics after losing as favorites.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won each of their last six games following a home loss.
• The Celtics have lost two of their last three games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents following a win.
• The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last six games following a home loss.
• The Celtics have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games at TD Garden when playing with a rest disadvantage.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Celtics’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Heat’s last seven Friday night games at TD Garden have gone OVER the total points line.

Boston Celtics Player Facts

• Neemias Queta ranks 2nd in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified players for FG% (63.8%) this season.
• Sam Hauser is one of only nine players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Norman Powell ranks 9th amongst qualified players for fast break points per game (3.7) this season.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. is one of only 11 qualified Guards in the league shooting at least 50% from the field this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Celtics rank 30th in the league for free throws made per game this season (14.6).
• The Celtics rank 30th in the league for free throw attempts per game this season (18.5).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for field goal attempts per game this season (94.1).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.5).

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction

The Heat are still playing without Tyler Herro, while the Celtics have ruled out Jayson Tatum once again. The Heat were starting to build some momentum before they got stopped in their tracks by the Hawks on Tuesday. But it’s the Celtics who enter this contest as the hotter team, especially following their dominant win over the Rockets on Wednesday.

These teams have already met twice this season, with the Celtics winning both meetings, and I think we’re about to see them seal the season series with a comfortable win and cover at this modest line.

Peter Tran's Pick: Boston -6.5