Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction 12/26/2025 Today’s NBA Picks

The Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks collide at the State Farm Arena on Friday night. Here’s a Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

The Miami Heat have been in a real slump as they’ve lost eight of their last nine games overall and they will be hoping to arrest a three-game slide after getting thrashed by the Raptors in a 112-91 loss on Tuesday. Jaime Jacquez Jr led the team with 21 points on nine of 16 shooting off the bench, Norman Powell added 17 points with six rebounds and six assists while Andrew Wiggins chipped in with 14 points.

As a team, the Heat shot just 40 percent from the field and eight of 30 from the 3-point line as they struggled from the tipoff and scored just 16 points in the first quarter to trail by seven points going into halftime. Things only got worse in the second half, where the deficit ballooned to 23 points at one stage. Bam Adebayo had a quiet game of just nine points on four of 11 shooting, while Davion Mitchell shot just one of six from the field for his three points. 

Atlanta Hawks Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks have been in a slump of their own as they’ve lost eight of their last 10 games overall. They will be hoping to avoid a fifth straight defeat after falling just short to the Bulls in a 126-123 loss on Tuesday. Jalen Johnson led the team with 24 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists, Trae Young added 22 points with 15 assists while Nickeil Alexander-Walker chipped in with 21 points on nine of 19 shooting.

As a team, the Hawks shot 51 percent from the field and 14 of 42 from the 3-point line as they got off to a great start with 68 points in the first half to take an 18-point lead. Only to go cold and score just 18 points in the fourth quarter to allow the Bulls to run them down and snatch the lead away with just 1:20 left on the clock. 

Why the Atlanta Hawks will win

• The Heat have lost seven of their last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The home team has won four of the last five games between the Heat and Hawks.
• The Hawks have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games on the first leg of a back-to-back after losing as favorites.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against Eastern Conference opponents.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Hawks have lost each of their last three games as favorites.
• The Heat have won eight of their last nine road games against Southeast Division opponents that held a losing record.
• The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Hawks’ last eight games at State Farm Arena.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Hawks’ last eight games as favorites following a home loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the Heat’s last five road games against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total points line.

Atlanta Hawks Player Facts

• Trae Young is one of only four players in the league to have recorded 17+ assists in a game this season.
• Onyeka Okongwu is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Andrew Wiggins is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.
• Norman Powell ranks 13th amongst qualified players for points per 36 minutes (27.2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Hawks rank 28th in the league for Q3 opponent points per game this season (31.1).
• The Hawks rank 27th in the league for offensive rebounds per game this season (10.0).
• The Heat rank 29th in the league for opponent offensive rebounds per game this season (12.8).
• The Heat rank 29th in the league for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (41.4).

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction

The Heat are still missing Tyler Herro, and they are keeping an eye on Keshad Johnson and Bam Adebayo, who are both questionable. Meanwhile, the Hawks have ruled out Kristaps Porzingis again, with Mouhamed Gueye listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. The Heat are mired in their worst slump of the season so far, but they get a bit of a much-needed boost with Pelle Larsson and Nikola Jovic upgraded to probable for this contest.

The Hawks really haven’t been much better than the Heat lately, as they’ve gone cold since the return of Trae Young. You couldn’t back either side with any confidence here, but the Heat are getting healthier, and I think this is a good spot for them to pull off the minor upset on the road.

Peter Tran's Pick: Miami +3.5