Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction 2/28/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Houston Rockets pay a visit to the Miami Heat at the Kaseya Center on Saturday afternoon. Here’s a Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat prediction. This article will include a Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat pick.

Houston Rockets Betting Preview 

The Houston Rockets have been in great shape as they’ve won six of their last eight games overall and they will be aiming for a fourth straight victory after outlasting the Magic in a 113-108 road win on Thursday. Kevin Durant led the team with 40 points on 14 of 28 shooting; Reed Sheppard added 20 points on seven of 11 shooting off the bench, while Alperen Şengün tallied 16 points with six rebounds and five assists.

As a team, the Rockets shot 52 percent from the field and 11 of 29 from the 3-point line as they really struggled to get going early on and scored just 43 points in the first half to trail by as many as 19 points, but that all changed in the second half, where the Rockets exploded for 70 points to run down the Magic with time to spare in the end. 

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat haven’t been at their best, as they’ve lost five of their last nine games overall and they will be hoping to avoid a third straight defeat after getting beaten by the 76ers in a 124-117 road defeat on Thursday. Bam Adebayo led the team with 29 points and 14 rebounds on 10 of 20 shooting; Tyler Herro added 25 points with seven assists on nine of 18 shooting, while Jaime Jaquez Jr. chipped in with 19 points off the bench.

As a team, the Heat shot 46 percent from the field and 17 of 40 from the 3-point line as they got off to a poor start and had to claw their way back from a 19-point deficit to take the lead late in the fourth quarter, before the 76ers closed the final 2:24 on an 8-0 run to snatch the game away. 

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Rockets have lost four of their last five games as road favorites following a road win.
• The Heat have won nine of their last 10 games against the Rockets.
• The Heat have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games following a loss.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games at Kaseya Center following a win.

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The Rockets have won each of their last nine road games against Southeast Division opponents.
• The Heat have lost each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a road loss.
• The Rockets have covered the spread in each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four day games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Points: Facts

• Each of the Rockets’ last four games as favorites against the Heat have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of the Heat’s last seven home games following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Jaime Jaquez Jr. is one of only nine qualified guards in the league shooting at least 50% from the field this season.
• Andrew Wiggins ranks 9th in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified players for 3P% (40.8%) this season.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Tari Eason ranks 10th amongst qualified players for 3P% (43.2) this season.
• Kevin Durant ranks 10th in the league for second-chance points (165) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Heat rank first in the league for field goal attempts per game this season (93.9).
• The Heat rank first in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.6).
• The Rockets have suffered the largest comeback loss from an HT lead this season—led by 22 points @ Pelicans on December 18.
• The Rockets rank 1st in the league for Q1 opponent points per game this season (26.5).

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction

The Rockets are still missing Jae’Sean Tate, Steven Adams, and Jabari Smith Jr., while the Heat have ruled out Norman Powell and Nikola Jovic once again. The Rockets have made the most of a soft patch in their schedule to reel off three straight wins and now they take on the Heat, who still haven’t been able to build momentum despite getting some players back from injury.

You get the feeling that the Heat will eventually start to turn things around, but with the line so short, I can’t go past the Rockets to maintain their momentum with a narrow win and cover in this spot.

Peter Tran's Pick: Houston -3.5