Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 2/27/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Friday in NBA action at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction. This article will include a Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder pick.

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

The Denver Nuggets lost to the Warriors, beat the Celtics, and play the Timberwolves next. The Nuggets have won 14 of their last 24 games.

The Denver Nuggets are averaging 120.5 points on 49.4 percent shooting and allowing 115.8 points on 46.6 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.8 points and 12.5 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 25.1 points and 4.4 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Peyton Watson is grabbing 4.9 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 39.3 percent from beyond the arc and 80.7 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 34.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.2 rebounds per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Raptors, lost to the Pistons and then play the Mavs next. The Thunder have won 5 of their last 7 games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 119.4 points on 48.4 percent shooting and allowing 108 points on 43.7 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.8 points and 6.4 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 17.5 points and 4.7 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Ajay Mitchell is grabbing 3.5 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 36.5 percent from beyond the arc and 82.1 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 36.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.7 rebounds per game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 10 home games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Nuggets have lost each of their last four games following a win.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Nuggets following a road loss.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against Western Conference opponents.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The underdogs have won three of the Thunder’s last four games at Paycom Center.
• The Nuggets have covered the spread in each of their last five games as road underdogs following a win.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five night games against Northwest Division opponents that hold a winning record.

Total Points: Facts

• Each of the Nuggets’ last six road games has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Thunder’s last five night games at Paycom Center has gone UNDER the total points line.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Tim Hardaway Jr. ranks 19th amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (3.7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (74.7%).
• The Thunder have suffered the largest comeback loss when leading through Q1 this season—led by 20 points @ Trail Blazers on November 5.
• The Nuggets rank 1st in the league for three-point percentage this season (39.3%).
• The Nuggets rank 1st in the league for true shooting percentage this season (61.3%).

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report

The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber, Branden Carlson, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell.

Tamar Bates, Aaron Gordon, and Peyton Watson are out for the Nuggets. Jalen Pickett, Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones, and Julian Strawther are questionable.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Nuggets in the big underdog role are always appealing but that injury report isn’t great. I’d need to see Murray, Jones, and others active to get involved. The Thunder are getting SGA and others back, as this is as clean of an injury report as they’ve had in a while. Two teams going in different directions from a health perspective. The winner has also covered in 8 of the last 10 games between the Thunder and Nuggets. I have to lay the number, but check the injury report for updates before betting.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5