Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 12/5/2025 Today’s NBA Picks

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Friday in NBA action at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview

The Dallas Mavericks beat the Heat and Nuggets, and they play the Rockets next. The Mavs have lost 20 of their last 30 games.

The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 110.2 points on 44.4 percent shooting and allowing 115.9 points on 45.8 percent shooting. Anthony Davis is averaging 19.3 points and 2.7 assists, while Cooper Flagg is averaging 16.7 points and 6.6 rebounds. PJ Washington is the third double-digit scorer, and Max Christie is grabbing 3.4 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 32.2 percent from beyond the arc and 75.7 percent from the free-throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 32.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.8 rebounds per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Warriors and Trail Blazers, and then play the Jazz next. The Thunder have won 25 of their last 26 regular season games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 122.2 points on 48.7 percent shooting and allowing 105.6 points on 42.2 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.2 points and 6.6 assists, while Chet Holmgren is averaging 18.3 points and 7.9 rebounds. Ajay Mitchell is the third double-digit scorer and Aaron Wiggins is grabbing 3.7 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 35.8 percent from beyond the arc and 84.5 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 36.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.2 rebounds per game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 35 night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Mavericks have lost each of their last seven road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last seven Friday night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road underdogs on the first leg of a back-to-back.

Why the Dallas Mavericks will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Mavericks’ last five games at Paycom Center.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last four games at Paycom Center against Mavericks teams that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between the Mavericks and Thunder.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 night games against Mavericks teams that held a losing record.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Mavericks’ last eight games at Paycom Center following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the Thunder’s last eight night games against the Mavericks following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Cason Wallace ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for steals per game (2.2) this season.
• Ajay Mitchell is one of only four players to have made 8+ field goals without a miss in a game this season.

Dallas Mavericks Player Facts

• D’Angelo Russell is one of only seven players to have scored 30+ points off the bench in a game this season.
• Ryan Nembhard is one of only eight players in the league to have recorded 10+ assists without a turnover in a game this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (18.0).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent field goal percentage this season (42.4%).
• The Mavericks rank 30th in the league for Q2 points per game this season (27.0).
• The Mavericks rank 30th in the league for H1 points per game this season (53.7).

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report

The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic, and Isaiah Hartenstein.

The Mavericks will be without Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and Dante Exum. Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington are questionable.

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Thunder are winning games, but they’ve failed to cover 6 of their last 10 games. This isn’t the OKC team from the past two seasons that’s been a covering machine. As the success builds, overreactions happen, and we get these inflated lines that are hard to cover. The Mavs are getting healthier, and they’ve quietly won 3 straight games. Also, the Mavericks are one of the few teams that’s had success against the Thunder, winning 7 of the last 10 games. I’ll grab the points in this spot.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Dallas Mavericks +14.5