Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction 4/28/25 NBA Picks

Golden State Warriors Betting Preview 

The Golden State Warriors look for another home win to take a 3-1 series lead. The Warriors have won 12 of their last 16 home games.

The Golden State Warriors are averaging 97.7 points on 43.9 percent shooting and allowing 95.7 points on 41.3 percent shooting. Stephen Curry averages 29 points and 7 assists, while Jimmy Butler averages 14 points and 3 assists. Pat Spencer is the third double-digit scorer, and Jonathan Kuminga is grabbing 2 rebounds. The Golden State Warriors are shooting 35.8 percent from beyond the arc and 72.3 percent from the free-throw line. The Golden State Warriors are allowing 33 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 38 rebounds per game.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Warriors have won each of their last 11 playoff home games against Southwest Division opponents.
• The Rockets have lost 11 of their last 12 Western Conference First Round road games against Pacific Division opponents.
• The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Warriors' last eight playoff games.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five playoff games as underdogs.

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The Warriors have lost each of their last three games as favorites following a win.
• The Rockets have won three of their last four Western Conference First Round games as underdogs.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games following a home win.
• The Rockets have covered the spread in four of their last five Western Conference First Round games as underdogs.

Golden State Warriors Player Facts

• Brandin Podziemski ranks 20th amongst qualified Guards for rebounds per game (5.1) this season.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Fred VanVleet ranks 8th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
• Jalen Green ranks 28th amongst qualified players for points per game (21.0) this season.

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Injury Report 

Jimmy Butler is questionable for the Warriors with a deep gluteal muscle contusion. Butler missed game 3 because of the injury.

The Rockets will be without Jae'Sean Tate and Jock Landale.

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction

The Warriors are going to be favored because they’re at home and the more experienced team that helps this time of year. However, I still like the Rockets and the points. There’s a decent chance Butler doesn’t play again and it’s putting a lot of pressure on Curry to be great while logging heavy minutes. The Rockets are still the deeper, younger team and that will be an advantage the longer this series goes. Also, the Rockets had their chances to win game 3 and even led most of that game. If Green decides to show up, the Rockets are capable of stealing this game. Give me the points.